I am not a square.

That might mean something to the gamblers out there, but most people are probably thinking Huey Lewis.

In gambling parlance, a square is someone who’ll give two touchdowns on the road and think nothing of it. A square is someone who takes the Colts because Marvin Harrison is good. A square is someone who bets 5-team parlays and expects to win.

A square is someone who’ll put money down on a baseball game. Or worse: a baseball total.

A square will take the Orioles at home –1.5 runs and expect to win.

But guess what? They do win. And just as often as anyone else.

Stick around Sports-Books and you’ll start hearing the expression: “the smart money.” The smart money is a large cloud of floating capital that represents the mortgage payments of professional gamblers, handicappers, and Vegas books that knew, like me, that Washington, closing out the season at home +4.5 to Minnesota in Week 17, was a lead-pipe cinch.

A good square vs. wiseguy story: I was at the counter in the Mirage Sports Book taking New Orleans +7.5 at Carolina, and Washington +4.5, when a kid in a Donovan McNabb t-shirt stumbled up behind me and asked who I liked in the Washington/Minny game. I told him Minny wouldn’t know a W in Week 17 if it came after V and before X. I told him you take the home team dog and don’t look back. In short, I told him where my money was going. His reaction: Culpepper’s good. And $40 drained into the great Vegas pool.

It’s amazing how many people claim to be great gamblers. You don’t hear people bragging that they picked the right lottery numbers. But pick a side of the spread and the story changes. Suddenly someone who won on a last-second interception return for a TD is a genius, and the guy who handicapped the first 59:59 of the game loses by half-a-point.

If you’re a gambler you’re probably thinking that the ½ point loser is you, the unsung hero of the betting world, and the lucky SOB is that jerk who makes his picks based on the number of letters in each team’s name.

In gambling, as in anything else, you can give yourself an edge. (Note: an edge. Not a sure thing, or a lock, or a cinch. There’s no such thing as a “sure thing.” It doesn’t exist) But you have to understand that an edge, or an inkling, or logic doesn’t mean anything once the game starts.

Point-spread picks are supposed to be 50/50, right? Well Vegas keeps 52% of the action once you factor in the juice (the 10 cents on every dollar that guarantees they don’t lose money over time). And what about the bettors? Well you have to hit at 60% to make money. You have to hit at 60, and the mathematical probability is 50. Don’t expect to win long-term.

Not many people remember high school math, but the concept of “Regression to the Mean” is something every gambler should know.

You can go up by a lot of money hitting all your bets. And you can tell yourself that the hot streak shouldn’t end because every game is an independent event. Just because your odds are 50/50 doesn’t mean you’re going to win half the time and lose half the time. If the Celtics were 40-point dogs every night out then you could probably rack up 100%. But that’s just not how it works. Why? Because of the lines.

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People don’t stop and consider the time, effort, and incredibly complex computer programs that generate spreads and totals. How many times have you seen a team favored by 3.5 win by 4? Or win by 3? It’s no co-incidence.

How many times have you seen an NBA total sit at 205 and the final score’s 101-103? Or 100-106? The fact that stuff like that happens, and happens all the time, should make you keep your money in RRSPs.

There are always going to be spots where teams are good plays. If you’re betting basketball always look for teams coming home to play their first game after a road trip that ended with a couple losses. In hockey, always bet on a team after they fire their coach. If a team goes on a ten game winning streak and loses, bet against them the next night. If a team gets blown out on the road and then plays at home against a team that’s just won on the road, take the home squad. Take football dogs at home. I could go on forever.

Why are these good bets? Because they’re percentage picks. They happen more often than not. But we’re talking about a 60-40 situation max. Dogs hit just as often as favorites. Did you know that, early last season in the NFL, favorites were covering something like 7 times out of 10? You know what that number was by the end of the season? Almost 50/50. And even if a bet is 60/40, how are you going to know when you’re in the 60, or in the 40?

And if you bet on a baseball game you’re an idiot. Baseball’s the only game where you can be winning for 3 hours and lose in less than a second. There’s no way to know if a pitcher is going to have a bad start. There’s no way to know whether the RP is going to blow it. There is absolutely no way to handicap a ball game, other than to say that the good teams usually win 6 out of 10, and the bad teams usually lose 6 out of 10.

When you lay your money down on a game you’re betting against Vegas. And it’s been said before, but necessitates repeating: That city wasn’t built on losses. Having traveled there, I can truly say: there have been a lot of losses.

If you’re going to bet you take each game separately vs. the spread. Never, never, never, parlay your bets unless you’re looking to lose. Vegas pays out 38% of all the parlay action they take. That means some people are winning, but most people are losing.

If you’ve got this far, you’re probably thinking that none of what I’m saying applies to you. You’re a good gambler, you know your stuff, and you can beat the books, Pro-Line, offshore sites etc…Well you may be winning so far. And you may be up a ton of cash. But you’re in the minority my friend. You’re nothing but lucky and that’s not a good wave to ride into shore.

Gambling’s not exclusive: Everyone loses equally. Or breaks even. Or goes up, then back to even, then down 50 bucks. That’s just the nature of the game. The only way to actually win money is to make a few big bets (bets with very little juice) and win them all. If you’re taking the money-line you can win big, fast, but those are tough nuts to crack outside of football season when you can always find 5-10 huge upsets/year. We’re talking about +320s or higher. And every week has its share of +210 games that come in. Just make sure you don’t parlay anything or spread your action out over the schedule. You don’t have to be on every game. And if you do you’ll break even or end up losing money. Or maybe you’ll win a unit. Large layouts are not the gambler’s friend.

You wouldn’t expect to beat the laws of gravity and start flying around the room, so why would you expect to lick Pythagorus?

If you’re going to gamble, don’t expect to win. It’s that simple. Do it for the enjoyment and the rush, but not the money. Your friends and acquaintances who may be up (or may just be lying about being up) are invariably the people who’ll bet on the Bears and then wonder who that #54 at MLB is. What does that tell you?

You don’t have to be good, you just have to be lucky.

At least you’ve got your health.

*I’m not a bitter former gambler who lost his shirt, pants, and entire wardrobe on the Yanks last year. I’m just someone who’s been gambling for 6 years and, lo and behold, hasn’t brought the Porsche home yet. Call me even-Steven.