In 2001 Joe Mays went 17-13/3.16/1.15 with 233 IP, 205 hits, 64 BB/123 Ks. Those are some pretty decent stats. Want to know how he did in 2000? How about 7-15/5.56/1.62 with 160 IP, 193 hits, 67 BB/102 Ks. Want to know how he did in 2002? How about 4-8/5.38/1.45, 95 IP, 113 hits, 25/38 BB/K. Those are some nice bookends, aren’t they?

So what does any of that Joe Mays stuff have to do with Jon Garland? Well, nothing…except they’re exactly the same pitcher.

Last year Garland, a perennial underachiever (so said the scouting community), went 12-11/4.89/1.38 with 217 IP, 223 hits, and 76/113 BB/K. The ERA’s not quite identical, but check out the BB/K rate! 1.52 for Mays in 2000 vs. 1.49 for Garland in 2004. Groundballs get through the infield, and pop-ups turn into home runs. But when two pitchers throw the same pitch (sinker) with the same velocity (low 90s) and the same arm angle (over-the-top) then BB/K is the best comparison edge you’re going to find.

I’m not saying sell high on Garland…yet. His 2-seamer’s got great life and he’s picking up those groundball outs. But let Joe Mays serve as a kind of reality check for Garland owners who think these good times are going to keep on rolling.

There’s a long list of 2-seamer guys who had it going on and then lost it overnight. Jake Westbrook comes to mind. Esteban Loaiza in 2003 after he left the Jays and learned to throw the sinker. Derek Lowe. And, of course, Joe Mays. We’re talking about 4 huge collapses in the past 3-4 years from pitchers with essentially the same repertoire.

Garland’s looking like a lock for an 18+ win season, but there’s always a possibility of that fastball flattening out. I don’t think that’ll happen in ’05, but you can never tell. He doesn’t have strikeout stuff, and his scouting report has always included the line: “A sinker that comes and goes.” That’s not good news for keeper league owners who think their $1 investment is going to bring home the bacon in ’06.

Garland’s trade value is hard to pin down. There are always going to be leagues where inexperienced (a buzz word for “stupid”) owners trade superstars for flash-in-the-pan players. I’ve seen leagues where Brady Clark’s going straight up for Ichiro. I even know a guy who landed Jason Schmidt for $3 in a mixed-keeper last year.

If you’re in a league with newbie owners, then it can’t hurt to ask if they’re looking to toss that bum in their OF. You know, Vernon Wells. Come on, Garland has 8 Ws! Still, you’re probably going to have a hard time getting current value. But just be wary of that beating around the corner. He’s not this good.

Need I say…Joe Mays?