Josh Howard Scouting Report

Josh Howard, 1st round pick, 29th overall. At 6’7” he’s part of the new NBA trend that’s seen tweeners at the PF/SF turned into to hybrid G/F. Howard put together a nice regular season in ‘04/05, giving you 13 points/game with 6 boards, a couple of assists, a block every other night, and almost 2 thefts/contest. He shot 47.5% from the field and 73% from the line. Not serious numbers, but almost 4-point improvements from his ‘03/04 totals (43% FG, 70% FT). How much better can he be?

Manu posted 1186 points to Howard’s 958. Their steals totals were almost identical (119 vs 116 respectively). Howard had 150+ more boards, Manu had 180 more dimes. They shot the same FG% (.471 vs. .475) and Howard picked up 22 more blocks. Yahoo has Howard ranked as the 66th best option going into ’05. Ginobili’s closer to the top at 42. I see them both at Top 40 players next season, with Howard taking a hop-step into the Top 25 as he starts hitting % at the line and moves closer to that magical 50% FG mark. He’s averaged 16/7 for the post-season with a 2+ steals and a couple assists/game. He’s shooting 50% from the floor, and 75% from the line. It goes without saying that you want Manu. He’s going to be a 20/6 player very soon with solid percentages and great assist/steals stats.

But Howard is really the breakout star you should be looking at when your league drafts in the fall. Watch for the new kid, Andre Iguodala, to follow right in his footsteps and post Howard’s ‘04/05 rebound numbers with higher point/assist totals. Josh is onto bigger and better things.

Howard reminds me of another 6’7” forward who plays in the West. You might know him: Shawn Marion. Marion was a 17/10 player in his second season with an almost identical FG%, assist, and steals average. He blocked 1.5/game and Howard won’t ever go that high. But 75-85 rejections is a distinct possibility. As far as the rest of his game, Howard just needs to find a team that gives him more touches. He’s much quicker than Rasheed Wallace, and more athletic than Gasol, or K-Mart. He figures to average 17 per in Dallas, but he’s easily a 19-point player on any non-Michigan Eastern Conference team.

Expect 19/9 from Josh with the potential to post huge steals totals. In terms of draft position I’d take him right around Maggette and probably before Rashard Lewis depending on whether your league counts 3s as a category. I’d be looking at Tayshaun Prince and Howard as mid-late 4th round-early 5th round, steals who are probably going to fall to late 5 or 6. Pick up Iguodala and Josh Smith instead mid-6th and you won’t be sorry.

If you’re looking for some really late value

Mike Dunleavy is poised to go 17/5 with regularity and Nene is 15/10 waiting to happen

. He’s better than Randolph, he just needs his shot in a lineup that doesn’t include two huge board guys. Joel Przybilla out in Portland is also poised for a huge year. I see him as a double/double with 3 blocks/game very shortly down the road.