Just a note to all the Ervin Santana owners out there: he’s slowing down.

Santana, who looked like an ace in the making during his second big-league start this year, has a long history of issues with his wing. He threw 43 innings last year, sitting out the balance with tendinitis in his elbow.

The only thing you should be concerned with is that he broke into the majors throwing a 96-97 mph fastball, and now he’s down to 93. It’s July and he’s probably tiring. He should be able to get by in the low 90s, but I’ll be really surprised if he makes it through the rest of the season with an ERA under 4.40-4.5.

There’s no one to replace him in the rotation so barring a DL stint, which is a distinct possibility, his 25 man spot is safe.

Just don’t expect much from him other than a high OBA and 6 K/9 IP.

Update (5/11/05): Since this page is seeing a lot of traffic I thought I’d update Ervin’s season and give a little early prognostication for his 2006 campaign.

My Santana analysis turned out to be a little optimistic. But just a little. I had his ERA at 4.5 to end the season and it ended up hitting 4.65. His 1.39 WHIP was expected, and the 99 Ks in 139 IP were right in line with our projection. Same with the .266 OBA.

So, what can we take from Ervin’s rookie year? For a pitcher who flashed a 96 mph fastball and a plus slider those K totals are very low. I pointed out towards the end of the year that he’d lost some velocity off his heater. At one point he was down to 93. But Ervin’s a very slight kid coming in at an unbelievable 6′2″ 160!!! You’ve just got to be happy he held up to pitch almost 200 combined innings.

He clearly wore down. And his pattern of following 7 k games with 4 k games is interesting. This is probably just a case of a guy learning how to play at the MLB level. He’s not a #1 starter, and I’m not sure if he’s a #2. What you can expect from Ervin (provided he stays healthy, which is still a huge question mark) is 15 wins/year with around 150+ Ks and a 3.5-3.8 ERA, 1.35 WHIP.

Ervin Santana Profile and Statistics