I’m not sure whether he takes the same path, but I see him as a #1 starter, probably just as good as Carpenter, within the next 3 years.

He and Carpenter are really the same pitcher when you think about it: low-mid 90s 2-seam fastball, exceptional curve.

His minor league issues aren’t stuff-related, so I assume he’s just learning to throw the ball where he wants it and repeat his mechanics. Stuff also wasn’t the issue when he took those beatings at the start of the season. His curve was beautiful, he just couldn’t locate it. And his 2-seam fastball had great movement down in the zone. But he couldn’t locate it either. Had he been able to locate any of his pitches he’d probably be the leading ROY candidate in the NL right now.

His first start against STL was 7 IP, 3 hits, O BB, 2 Ks. Over his next 7 IP he walked 12.

He’s getting beaten up in AAA (80 hits in 64 IP), and almost everyone seems to have kicked him off the prospect heap. The same thing happened to Weeks after last year’s mediocre AA stint.

The only problem with the Carp comparison is that it took 8 years for Chris to be this good. I think Gavin’s extra time in the minors, learning how to pitch, will probably accelerate the maturing process. And when he gets his call up, provided he’s actually learned to repeat a good delivery, I can see him becoming an instant 15 game winner.

Oh, and if they want to change his arm angle a la Roy Halladay, I’m all for that. But he’ll end up somewhere between Roy and Carp. The stuff, body type, and attitude are all the same.

Update (3/23/06)
Citing a new determination to take the mound angry, and attack hitters, Gavin Floyd is actually starting to post good spring numbers. He’s 2.30 ERA/.228 OBA overall in 15.2 IP. He’s given up 13 hits and his K:BB is 14:7. 7 BBs in 14 innings is still a joke, but his command’s been better the last couple games. I don’t think it’s going to happen this fast, but eventually he’ll learn how to throw strikes. Just watch him for the rest of ST. Maybe he’s only pitching like a hero because he knows there’s no way to push Madson out of the 5th spot in the rotation.