Taking the jump from AA to the hill at Joe Robbie Stadium, “Scott Olsen” may be a name you’ve heard in Roto circles. He was 6-4/80 IP/3.93 ERA/1.27 WHIP/75 Hits/94 Ks for Carolina before being promoted to the Marlins. At 6’4, Olsen’s generated some comparisons to Chuck Finley. He doesn’t throw a splitter, but the arsenal is still similar.

He works 88-92 with the fastball and can touch 97. I stress “touch” because you’ll probably see that reading on the radar gun about once every start. I’m not sure why the disparity in velocity, but his delivery isn’t exactly fluid and I’d be willing to be he’s sacrificing heat for location.

Olsen throws a cutter that has some decent running action on righties. He works a changeup and short-slider that are both very similar to the cut fastball. I’ve heard he has a big breaking slurve, but I don’t think he’s completely comfortable with that pitch.

He’s got a 3.55 ERA on the year with 16 Ks in 12.1 IP. Since he seems to be able to locate the fastball on the outside corner I’d say the Ks are probably going to come in at about 7-8/9 IP. Maybe more. But he’s not really a hammer-thrower. He does a really good job of moving the ball around in the zone and his control isn’t bad at all for a rookie.

Olsen looks, to me, like a cross between Finley and vintage Mark Mulder. That means he’ll probably post a mid-4 ERA for the rest of the season, and hit the mid 3s in ’06. You can expect him to allow close to a hit/inning, and cap the Ks at around 160/season.

There’s definitely a lot to like here, but he’s not ’04 Oliver Perez. His stuff is above average, but we’re talking about a #2 or #3 starter here. Still, a lefty in the NL who throws a cutter and can hit 97 is a valuable commodity. But if you want to make Dontrelle Willis comparisons, know that Olsen lacks the added deception. Their stuff is similar, but Willis runs his fastball better on righties. It has a bit more life. Willis didn’t have Olsen’s minor-league K totals, but his OBA was markedly better. What that means, in short, is that if Willis is #1, Olsen is a solid #2.

Update (9/24/05): Olsen’s out for the year with an elbow strain. Before he went down he was 1-1, with a 3.98 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 21:10 K/BB in 20 IP for the Marlins. He was 3.93/1.27 with a 94:27 K/BB in 80 IP for AA South Carolina.

At this point you’ve got to question whether his fastball comes back. At the very least he should be working at 92 mph. But he was hitting 89-90 before the elbow became a concern. That 97 scouts bragged about was obviously some kind of Oktoberfest sausage induced delusion. With that kind of “heat” he’s no better than another Noah Lowry.