Looking At 2006

One of the best ways to forecast breakout seasons is by looking at a player’s production down the stretch run. But here at Fantasy Sports Trades we’re ready to believe you already know that.

And there are about fifty other sites that are going to tell you exactly the same thing: look at Jeff Francoeur

. So let’s look at some real 2006 commodities; guys you probably won’t see mentioned on any other lists…The 2006 keepers who’ll be good in 2007.

Casey Kotchman Scouting Report: It’s still not time to admit the Todd Helton comparisons were wrong. Kotchman’s 22, and he’s coming off another mediocre minor league season (.289/10/58, 40/43 K/BB), but he’s still going to be a .300/25/100 player. In his first 44 MLB games: 0 HRs. In his last 22 MLB games: 7 HRs. Darin Erstad is likely going to wind it down next year, splitting time at 1B/DH with Casey. But Anaheim also has Kendry Morales in the pipeline so they’re going to have to make a decision. You can bet that Kotchman is going to hit the ground running in ’07, but ’06 is most definitely going to be a consolidation year. Draft him in keeper leagues for a few bucks and wait for the payoff.

Gavin Floyd Scouting Report: Floyd didn’t have a Kotchman-esque mediocre AAA season: he had a bad AAA season. (6.17 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, with 155 Hits in 137 Innings). Yes, that’s bad. But despite rumors he’d lost his curveball and the heater was straight Gavin came up against Washington last week and gave a decent effort. His command is worse than terrible. Know that. Vinny Castilla wanted to charge the mound at least three times because Floyd’s curve just wouldn’t break. But his 2-seam fastball sits at 92, and his curveball is going to be unhittable. When it was working it was beautiful. The problem is no one knows when he’s going to harness that command. My guess is he puts the work in this winter and emerges in ’06 as a decent pitcher. I’m tempering my expectations because he’s either going to win 15 games with a mid-3 ERA, or stay right on the path of walking 5/9 IP. There’s no middle road with Gavin. He’s exactly like the Oliver Perez of 2004 who just seemed to wake up one day in May and start throwing strikes. But, like the Oliver Perez of 2005, head-case pitchers with serious flaws in their delivery can revert to ERA and WHIP killers at any time.

Jose Valverde Scouting Report: By the time 2007 roles around Jose Valverde’s going to be a $20 player in mixed leagues. After struggling with a bum shoulder in 2004 he’s finally back on track to start dominating weak NL hitters. We all know the boys in the Senior Circuit can’t hit the fastball and Valverde’s 67 Ks in 53 IP shows he’s got his stuff back. Remember his ’03 debut? 24 hits in 50 innings? 71 Ks? This guy’s going to be very, very good. He just hasn’t been piling up the saves because the D-Backs have been struggling. With some folks thinking Lyon’s the man there’s bound to be value waiting at your draft table when you call Jose’s name. He’s at least a Danys Baez next year (32 saves, 3.xx ERA). And 75 Ks would be a very modest guess.

Jhonny Peralta Scouting Report: He really shouldn’t be on this list because, for all intents and purposes, he’s already broken out. But there’s a very good chance that with this late-season swoon he’s going to fall to around .270/25/70 by the time October rolls around. That means you’ll be able to get him cheap next year when he can put an entire season together in the 3/5/6 hole, driving in 85-90 and hitting 25 jacks. He’s another one of those young guns, only 23 years old. If he’s doing this at 23 with only around 700 careers ABs, imagine what you’re going to get at 27. Jhonny’s a right-handed hitting SS, but you know what, so is Miguel Tejada.

Daniel Cabrera Scouting Report : His ERA and WHIP ballooned with a late-summer hiccup. But he’s a K/IP guy and Ray Miller is going to have him throwing strikes. This is your Jeremy Bonderman of ’04: a guy people were ready to pounce on at this year’s draft because of the huge potential payoff. He came off the DL yesterday blowing strikes by Jays’ batters and racking up 10 Ks in 7 IP with his 99 mph fastball. While the rest of your league fawns over Felix Hernandez you should be looking at Cabrera as a guy to hold onto for a few years. I have a feeling he’s going to start that ascent to AJ Burnett status in ’06 and be a 195-200 K guy by the time ’07 rolls around.

Wily Mo Pena Scouting Report: That HR/AB rate is still hovering around Manny Ramirez territory. But with Griffey having a comeback year in CF, Dunn hitting bombs in RF, and Kearns being babied by the organization that refuses to give up hope for him there’s just no room for Pena. His glove is suspect, but remember the Carlos Lee of ’99-’02? We’re talking about the same player here. Pena will be a 30-40 HR threat in the next few years. He’s another 23-year-old minor league FA signing who’s been jerked around because of a bad contract that’d have him pass through waivers on the way to the Reds’ AAA affiliate in Louisville. Because he’d be snapped up in about six seconds the only thing to do is bide your time as an owner and wait until he’s traded or handed a starting spot. That will happen by ’07, at which time he’ll have learned to hit the breaking pitch. He’ll still be 25, only now he’ll be hitting those 400-foot shots with consistency. You can’t throw this guy a fastball if he’s playing and in the groove.