Winning an NFL pool with a late pick in a snake draft has become almost impossible. I’d say it all hinges on the depth of your league. If you’re in a 14-teamer and you’ve got the 13th or 14th pick then you may as well say goodbye to your season. While you’re targeting Clinton Portis the guys up front have already tabbed LaDainian, Priest, and Shaun Alexander.

And are you really supposed to take solace in the fact that you’ve got the last pick of the 1st round, and the 1st pick of the second round? So you pick up Portis and Javon Walker instead of LaDainian and Reggie Wayne? That doesn’t seem like a fair trade-off to me.

Peyton Manning passed for 49 Tds last season. The #5 guy on that list, Jake Delhomme, threw for 29 scores. Now how are you supposed to overcome a 150 point difference between the first QB selected, and the 5th?

The difference wasn’t so pronounced at RB, where LT, Tiki Barber, Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, Domanick Davis, Edgerrin Jame, Corey Dillon, and Rudi Johnson would have all given you a chance to win. But look at what’s going on this year. LT leads the league with 153 fantasy points. Five RBs later you’ve got Thomas Jones with 89. That’s a 60 point hole and we’re not even half-way through the season.

Still, there’s a ton of parity out there at the 2nd tiers of WR/QB/RB. After the best 5 players you’ve got a solid base of 10-15 equals. But with the way players have been dropping this year your late-round pick, coupled with a bad break, could sink you early. It’s not exactly a good sign when Javon Walker tears his ACL in the 1st game of the season.

I guess there’s really no moral to this story. Those playing in leagues with active FA wires might have been able to pick up a Terry Glenn at the start of the year and ride his hot streak. Joey Galloway is also looking great in Tampa Bay. And, to be fair, high picks like Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper haven’t worked out so well. Marvin Harrison hasn’t exactly been tearing it up either.

Still, give me the #1, 2, or 3 overall picks and you can have Thomas Jones and Hines Ward. The risk factor involved in taking two Ahman Greens vs. one Shaun Alexander is so great it’s not even worth the trade speculation.