A note to all those in Survivor pools. Do not take the Seattle Seahawks this week.

And on that note, here come the upsets:

Texans at Seahawks: The Seattle Seahawks are 9.5 faves over Houston. The ‘Hawks are coming off a road victory over a Rams team that could stop Horshack from scoring. The Texans are 0-4, they’re on the road, and they’re coming off a beating at the hands of a mediocre Titans team. So why do I think they’ll win this game? The Seahawks pass-rush is barely adequate. They’re in the bottom third of rush yards, pass yards, and points allowed. And they’re coming off a big win over a bad team.

Houston’s problem has been getting protection for David Carr, who’s been sacked about 7 times/contest. That shouldn’t be a problem against the Seahawks, who’ll probably take him down 3-4 times.

The Texans are motivated. They’re sneaking in under the radar in this one. Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram are both out. Joe Jurevicius burned the Rams for big yards, but he’s slowed down considerably. You can take a cover to the bank on this one, but I actually think Houston comes out of this game 1-4.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: If Big Ben’s out in this one and Charlie Batch gets the start then there’s absolutely no reason to think the Jags lose this game. Bettis and Parker cannot run against a monster Jags line if there’s no threat of a passing game.

Giants at Dallas: The Giants are a lousy road team and the Cowboys beat the Eagles last week. The Giants have the vastly superior offense and the Dallas defense is just not that strong. The 3.5 points the Cowboys are favored by just doesn’t add up. Sure the Giants lost big in San Diego a couple weeks ago, but they’re coming off a bye and the Dallas secondary is suspect.

Cleveland at Baltimore: The Ravens were absolutely awful last week with Anthony Wright at the helm. He’s back again, this time for a home game, and he’ll be starting. Wright is bad. Very bad. Betting on the Ravens as a favorite with Wright starting is a little like betting on a Jonathan Quinn-led team. Cleveland has played pretty well this season. Their west-coast offense shouldn’t give the Ravens a ton of turnover opportunities. And all Baltimore has going is a healthy Jamal Lewis.

Wright can’t make the deep throws, he can’t make the short throws, and he can’t make the intermediate throws. If Baltimore wins this game it’ll only be because Jamal Lewis has a huge day and the defense scores points.

Carolina at Detroit: Not a game I love, especially with the Panthers coming off a win vs. Arizona. Never bet on a team the week after they beat the Cardinals. But Carolina is the better team and Detroit’s offense is all smoke-and-mirrors. It just doesn’t exist. They’ll be pumped after a win against the Ravens, but it wasn’t really a quality W.