It’s an interesting week in the NFL with a lot of teams favoured who haven’t shown much in the way of wins this year. The oddsmakers are, again, trying to bait the gambling public into making bad plays. Let’s see if you take the bait.

ATLANTA -3 vs. New England
The Falcons are very good at home, and we’ve all heard about the Patriots injury-depleted roster. Michael Vick and his sprained right knee are going to start, but expect a complex New England defensive scheme to have him throwing for under 200 yards and doing a lot of unintentional grounding. I like the Falcons against teams that can’t stop the run, but New England’s problems aren’t up-front. The Pats play smart defense and, depleted or not, I think the New England secondary can handle future HOFs Michael Jenkins and Brian Finneran. The Falcons don’t seem smart enough to beat a Patriots team coming off a huge beating against the Chargers. This is a team that beat the Steelers on the road 2 weeks ago and now Vegas is ready to give you 3 points. I say take’em.

BUFFALO -2.5 vs. Miami
Buffalo has to win this game. JP Losman has the skills (trust me, he does) but he hasn’t looked good. Miami comes in as a decent defensive team with good receivers and a veteran QB. They’re good enough to keep the game close, but probably not good enough to overcome a motivated Bills D playing at home. I don’t expect a huge day from Losman, but there are going to be points scored in this one. It just has to happen. We might be looking at a turnover fest.

Carolina -3 vs. ARIZONA
Carolina just barely escaped the Monday nighter with a win over the Packers. Now they’re in Arizona facing a really bad team that just might have taken something from a trouncing of the 49ERs. Not that beating San Francisco is anything to be proud of. Carolina is the better team. Clearly. But provided Arizona doesn’t do anything too stupid to throw this one away they’ll probably win this game. Josh McCown looked competent on Sunday, but I am stressing that he was playing the Niners. Whether Carolina shows up or not will be the big determinant in this one. The short line tells you Vegas has absolutely no clue whether that happens. What they’re trying to do is force you to take Carolina.

CLEVELAND -3 vs. Chicago
Cleveland isn’t so bad. Really. Chicago isn’t so bad. Really. What we have here is a matchup of mediocre teams with mediocre QBs, mediocre RBs, and mediocre WRs. I’ll give the edge to Chicago in terms of defense, but this game is being played in Cleveland. I think 3 points is what makes this game impossible to handicap. There’s no reason to think Kyle Orton has a big day. because he threw 5 ints. last time out. But these games are always the biggest shockers on the schedule. Cleveland’s pass defense is terrible and their run D isn’t that much better. I expect a 20-20 game with someone winning by an FG. I lean to Cleveland at home, but the suggestion that the Bears keep it close is enough to keep me away from this one for now.

DENVER -7 vs. Washington
Denver’s coming off a very good game at Jacksonville, and the Skins are coming off a skin-of-their-teeth win at home vs. Seattle. The game shouldn’t have gone into OT, but Washington has displayed a complete inability to get their skill players TDs over the past few seasons. Washington is an underrated team. They’re tough, and they play decent D. But this one is in Denver and they can’t seem to put up points. I lean to Washington as 7 point dogs because we all know Denver’s propensity for laying down after solid wins. I don’t think Washington will win this one, but they should keep it close.

DETROIT -1.5 vs. Baltimore
Detroit’s favoured? The Lions are at home vs. the Ravens. These are two teams that can’t seem to buy good QB play. There’s no way I’d touch Detroit. The Ravens defense is just too much for a QB in Joey Harrington who’s shown a weak arm and bad field vision since coming into the NFL. Baltimore won’t score much, but they should force at least a few turnovers they can convert into FGs.

GREEN BAY -3 vs. New Orleans
Green Bay is mad. They’re at home. And they’re favoured by 3 vs. the Saints. New Orleans is coming off a sloppy win vs. Buffalo and Green Bay is coming off a heart-breaker vs. Carolina. I wish I could say I think the Pack are going to blow the Saints away in this one. But that’s not how they work. Standard Green Bay modus operandi in these kind of games is to lose. Barring that, they’ll come back in the 4th quarter and win on the last drive. Emotions will be running high in Wisconsin, and God knows I don’t have faith in Aaron Brooks. If Joe Horn plays then I’d tease the New Orleans line up a bit. But if he’s out then the likely result is a Green Bay win by 7+.

HOUSTON -3 vs. Tennessee
The Titans are not a good team. Sure, we all thought they couldn’t be as bad as people forecast this year because they’ve been good for so long. But they’re bad. Steve McNair has really slowed down and their defensive secondary is really hurting. The Texans almost won last week at Cincy, getting strong play from their D and typically weak performances from their offense. Well they can, and will score against the Titans. Whether they win by 3 or 10 is tough to say because they’ll give up the long pass. But take Houston and I think the worst that happens is a push. Just know that Tennessee will score through the air.

Indianapolis -14.5 vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Why would you even think about betting this game? 14.5 points on the road is too much to lay, even vs. San Fran. And you’re sure as hell not taking the Niners, who might give up 60.

JACKSONVILLE -2.5 vs. Cincinnati
Another game that’s impossible to handicap. Jacksonville keeps every game close with a defense that will shut down Cincy’s running game. The problem is they can’t score points. How can you be comfortable with a team that might give you 14 on any given Sunday? Well the alternative is to take the Bengals on the road, coming off a tough home game vs. Houston where their offense kind of stalled out. Jacksonville had a bad one vs. Denver last week and will be smarting. Cincy plays a very similar style to the Broncos. I think they might be a little too fast for the Jags.

Philadelphia -3.5 vs. DALLAS
Dallas and Bledsoe looked bad last week. Philly looked great coming back against the Chiefs in a game they should have lost. It seems like no one in the league is willing to, or capable of, covering Terrell Owens. Dallas should get the edge in this one because they’re at home playing a team coming off a big road win, but, again, Drew Bledsoe looked very shaky in Week 4.

ST. LOUIS -3 vs. Seattle
St. Louis is back at home, the only place you can bet them with any degree of confidence. Their defense is terrible, but that offense can still click with the passing game. Of course Seattle can’t defend the pass, but they can run right over the Rams. This one is another telegraphed push. The Rams are coming off a bad loss at New York, and Seattle’s passing game is pretty weak right now. Sure they’ll exploit a bad Rams D, but I think it’s a tit-for-tat type game.

Tampa Bay -3.5 vs. NEW YORK JETS
The trap of the week. Not only will the Jets cover this game; my guess is they win it. Vinny Testaverde is back at QB and he’ll be facing the most overrated team of the short 2005/2006 season. The Jets D is tough enough to stop a decent Tampa offense, and Herm Edwards has given the go ahead to attempt passes longer than 3 yards this week. It’s just not a good matchup for a Tampa team coming off close wins against average teams.

SAN DIEGO -3 vs. Pittsburgh
The Chargers are fast and the Steelers are savvy. New England beat Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago, and San Diego thumped New England last week. But that doesn’t mean anything. This game is in San Diego and Pitt has has 2 weeks to prepare. San Diego is 2-2 and they can score. I expect a high-scorer. But I don’t really have a good handle on this one yet. If the Steelers line doesn’t play any better than they did a couple weeks ago San Diego is going to score 40 and blow them out. On the other hand, San Diego’s secondary is weak and Pittsburgh should put up a lot of points through the air. Maybe this one’s just a shoot-out.