It’s all over the AP wires by now, and even Yahoo’s got it as their front-page story: BJ Ryan, the former lefty-reliever extraordinaire for the Baltimore Orioles, is on the verge of signing a 5 year/$47 million deal with the Blue Jays. Apparently that’s the second biggest contract ever offered to an RP. Mariano Rivera was signed with the Yankees for $39.99 million over 4 years from 2001-2004. Right now he’s making $10.5 million/year on a 2 year deal. Ryan will be making $9.4. If that seems a little strange to you, don’t worry, you’re not alone.

Ryan was 36-41 in save chances last year, going 1-4/2.43 ERA/54 hits and 100 K in 70.1 IP. He walked 26 and posted a 1.14 WHIP with a .208 BAA. His numbers were just a little bit better in 2004.

There’s no doubt that BJ’s a fine reliever. He throws a fastball at 91-96, slider at 85-86, and tosses in an occasional changeup. His slider is the east-west kind, not the Brad Lidge big-dipper. It’s extremely effective against lefties, but righties still have trouble handling his stuff. In fact right-handed hitters hit .206 off Ryan vs. .211 for lefties, though his K-rate vs. southpaws was about 2-3 punchouts better/9 IP.

Ryan’s basically a life-size version of Mike Gonzalez. He’s got the skills to be a very good closer, and now he’s got 5 years to show he’s the next Billy Wagner. He better be that good ’cause the Jays are giving him Wagner money. In fact Billy only made $9 million last year. And Eric Gagne pocketed $8 million after his brilliant 3-year run from ‘02-’04. Just why are the Jays committing to such a huge contract for a guy who only threw 70 innings last year?

The problem with comparing Ryan’s salary to other closers is that most of these guys are still working under the terms of their 1st or 2nd contracts. A guy like Derrick Turnbow, for instance, wasn’t even on the Brewers’ opening-day radar. He’s making small-change. Same idea with someone like Brad Lidge who made $500,000 last year.

There’s no question that 5 years/$47 million for Ryan is a terrible signing. He’s getting paid like a Top 3 closer when he’s really just got very effective Top 20 stuff. You wouldn’t pay Jose Valverde $9 million, yet the guy’s shown the exact same potential as BJ.

Mariano Rivera, Eric Gagne, and Brad Lidge can be unhittable. Would you put BJ Ryan up there with any of those guys? He’s definitely good, but not $9 million good. That money should have been invested in the lineup, probably at 1B. You just can’t give a closer that kind of money unless he’s got the talent to make it pay.