Seattle opened 12 point favourites against San Francisco. The line’s up to 13. After notching a 31-16 over the Rams last week the ‘Hawks are on a nice little run. They’ve won 7 of the last 8, and they’re 1st in the NFC West by a comfortable 3-game margin.

What about San Francisco? Well, at 2-7 they’re tied with the Cardinals for last in the division. They’ve scored 126 points in 9 games and been smoked to the tune of 263. They’ve averaged under 200 yards of offense/game and given up 397. They’ve scored 6 or fewer points in 3 games this season. And their starting QB last week, Cody Pickett, has a QB rating of 28.3. The league average is 83.7.

So, taking all that into account, why would you not want to lay the 13 with Seattle this week? Well, the Seahawks’ 2 losses this year have come on the road, and the 49ers’ 2 wins have come at home. More importantly, Ken Dorsey’s back as the starter.

A couple weeks ago the Niners lost 24-6 to the Giants with Cody Pickett at QB. Eli Manning had a mediocre day and the game was 10-6 Giants going into the 4th. Pickett passed for 102 yards. The new Niners’ gameplan is run 3 times and punt. Maybe, just maybe, they try to actually score points this week.

The key to this game is Shaun Alexander. The only way the 49ers keep this game close is if they can stop Alexander from getting 1st downs at will. And if they couldn’t stop Adrian Peterson last week, why would you think they rein in Alexander? He could always leave early with an injury.

This is just a warning that this game’s a trap. It looks easy, but it’s the kind of thing where you lay 13 and Seattle wins by 7.