The upset card is looking a little slim this week. We’re well into the dog days of the NFL season, that little lull between Week 7 and Week 11 where all the favourites seem to pull off predictable victories. But there are always interesting plays to be found when you take the point spread into account.

Chicago -13.5 vs. SAN FRANCISCO:
Chicago scores 18 points/game and you’re going to take them on the road at -13.5? I don’t think so. This one goes first because it’s something only the professional gamblers are gonna see. Just watch San Francisco cover, and quite possibly win, this game.

Cleveland +8 vs. PITTSBURGH: This game’s in Pittsburgh. But Charlie Batch is starting and Bettis is still questionable. A few weeks ago Cleveland went into Baltimore and lost 16-3 to an Anthony Wright-led Ravens team. They didn’t cover that game. But they should have. It’s pretty damn tough to lay 8 points with a team that scored 3 last week. Yes, I know the final score was 20-10 for Pittsburgh, but 10 of those came off red zone turnovers. The other 7 was a Polamalu fumble return for a TD. Duce Staley looked plain bad. At this point in his career he’s just a big, fat, slow RB. And Charlie Batch was just as mediocre as any 3rd stringer should be.

Cleveland is coming off a 20-14 win vs. Tennessee. They’re not, by any means, a good team. But a Batch/Staley offense is so pathetic that the Browns franchise is going to be set back a year if they can’t muster up enough to cover this game. They have the running game to play this close. If they lose by more than 8 it’ll be all Dilfer’s fault.

New York Jets +9 vs. CAROLINA: I think the Panthers are a good team, but this line’s a little ridiculous. If we know anything about Carolina it’s that they’re great as underdogs, but lousy as favourites. Brooks Bollinger came into the game last week and actually showed impressive talent. He was moving around in the pocket, rushing for yards, and making good throws. I know he’s on the road, but maybe he’s mature enough to handle a Carolina crowd. Either way, the Panthers are just not a good bet at 9 points. The Jets play a tough ball-control offense that isn’t conducive to opposition blowouts. Even with a lame Testaverde at the helm they only lost by 13 in Atlanta a few Mondays ago.

At 2-6 you can’t say the Jets need this one. Their season is over. But they’re really not as bad as that record makes ‘em seem. These 2 defenses are only 10 yards apart in terms of yardage surrendered/game (NY 315, Carolina 305).

Here’s the problem: What if New York decides not to show up for this one? Then it’s a blowout. But Carolina is already coming off a couple easy wins. You’d hope New York comes to play. Because if they do they can beat this Carolina team.

St. Louis +7 vs. SEATTLE:The Rams beat the Seahawks in last year’s NFC playoffs. They lost by 6 to Seattle in Week 5 in a game they could have easily won. Now they’re on the road where they’re about as good as a Raiders Fan’s Visa. Mark Bulger, Isaac Bruce, and Tory Holt are expected back. Considering the importance of this game for both teams the 7 seems a little high. The Rams defense is pretty bad, but this is a Seattle team led by Joe Jurevicius at WR.

That’s still probably too much for the Rams. Joe, who would probably be the 4th receiver on most NFL teams, went off for 137 yards in the first matchup this year. That was a career day for a 31 year old receiver coming off reconstructive knee surgery. Kind of tells you all you need to know about the Rams’ secondary.

I still think 7 is too high. The Rams shouldn’t be able to stop Alexander. But I have a feeling they’ll contain him. He can rack up yardage if he wants, but the Rams are going to answer back. That’s all you’re thinking when you play this game. Defense isn’t a concern because neither of these teams have shutdown personnel. If anyone ends up having a bad day on offense it’s just a fluke. That’s the way it is. But we all know these teams can score. When you lay the 7 you’re betting on a St. Louis turnover that kills the exchange. That’s what happened last times these teams faced. But turnovers can go both ways, and I’d hate to need a converted TD with time winding down in this one.

A Couple Others:
Houston vs. INDY: If you feel inclined to bet Indianapolis at -17.5 do yourself a favour and go bury your bankroll deep enough in the backyard that you won’t be able to get it out before 1 p.m. tomorrow. I don’t know if Houston will cover, but you never lay 17.5 in the NFL.

Minnesota vs. NEW YORK GIANTS:This game opened at 10, so money must be coming in on the Vikings. Minnesota is a bad road team, a bad home team, and a bad team, period. Not my favourite game, but Eli Manning looked awful last week vs. a terrible 49ers team. Maybe that was just a case of road jitters. Maybe not.

Arizona vs. DETROIT:The Lions are the NFL’s softest team, and the Cardinals are due for a W. At this point you have to wonder why anyone would put money on a Harrington-led offense.