When Corey Patterson went .266/24 HR/91 Runs/72 RBI/32 SB in 2004, everyone thought this was the start of something big. Why? Because Patterson, then 24, was a former 1st round pick who had gone .298/13 HR/49 Runs/55 RBI/15 SB in 83 games before tearing his ACL in 2003. Those numbers translated to a 30/30 season. Patterson was supposed to be that good, and people expected those numbers out of the 3rd overall pick in the ‘98 draft.

Then came 2005. Patterson was the Cubs’ starter in CF. He bothed easy plays, misread balls, and hit .215. He started the season hitting leadoff, but his .293 OBP meant he wasn’t long for the top of the order. He hit 13 HRs, notched 34 RBI, and Kd 118 times in 451 ABs. It was an awful season, and it still remains to be seen whether he’s going to play much in 2006.

The whole Patterson debacle reminded me of the Jose Cruz situation a few years back. Amazingly enough, Cruz was also the 3rd overall pick in his draft (3rd overall in ‘95). He’d been drafted twice before, but had decided to play NCAA ball. He was hyped as the next great thing, a power/speed combo who could hit 1st or 3rd, scoring 100 and driving in 100.

After a couple mediocre years with the Jays, Cruz popped for 31 HRs and 76 RBIs in 2000. He hit .242, and stole 14 bases. In 2001 he hit 34 HRs, drove in 88, and stole 32. He hit .274 and it looked like he was delivering on his promise. His K:BB was 138:45. That wasn’t good, but 3:1 isn’t such a bad number. His .326 OBP was also not very good, but he scored 92 runs and he was producing something.

Then came 2002: Cruz hit .245, stole 7 bases, and drove in 70. 2003: he hit .250, stole 5 bases, and went 20 HRs/68 RBI.

Cruz is 31 now, and is coming off a season in which he was pegged to start for the D-Backs, but lost his job after going .213/12 HR/28 RBI in 202 ABs. Is this what the future holds for Patterson?

Cruz’s career AVG is .250, and his career OBP is .338. He’s slugged .456, and his OBP is 794.

Patterson’s career AVG is .252, and his career OBP is a disgusting .293. He’s slugged .414, and his OBP is 707.

Unless Patterson can find a way to actually make contact with the ball he’s going to be destined to a career as a 4th OF, sometimes starter, whom everybody looks at as a diamond in the rough because of his potential. He’s only 26, so it’s conceivable he turns his career around. But he looked worse than bad for Chicago last year, swinging at pitches like he was blindfolded. That’s not an exaggeration: he’d go up to the plate and swing at 4-seam fastballs 2-3 feet out of the strikezone. That’s a pitch that’s designed to be thrown straight as an arrow. And he couldn’t even read it.

Since pitch recognition is such a big part of a batter’s game, Patterson is going to have to learn to have a plan at the plate. He has a moderately quick bat, so there’s no reason he should be striking out so often. I really wonder if it doesn’t click for him in the next year or so and he goes back to being a solid player. But his defense was bad last year, and he sure didn’t hit. It kind of makes you wonder what’s going on with this guy. Remember that they always said Cruz would bust out and realize his potential. Well what happened to the 30/30 guy who hit .274? Sure, he doesn’t have to hit 30 jacks again, but when a guy shows you he can’t even hit .220 you’ve got to start thinking that maybe some players are just fragile. They break easily.

Remember, you can have the talent, but you’ve got to understand the game. It’s the reason why we’re still waiting for Austin Kearns. And it’s the reason Ben Grieve’s out of baseball.