A couple days ago I posted the following regarding David Garrard’s fantasy value for the rest of the season:

He’ll have good fantasy value over the remainder of the season, provided the Jags let him throw the ball. We already know they’re committed to running 20-30 times with Greg Jones and Fred Taylor. So expect 20-25 passing attempts/game with about 175-200 yards and a score/game. He’s going to pick up at least a few rushing TDs with games coming up against Houston, Cleveland, San Francisco, and Tennessee. With that kind of schedule he could easily up his production to 225 yards and 2-3 scores/game.

Something’s happened to make me stick to my Nostradamus-like prophesy: Fred Taylor. Taylor won’t play this week in Cleveland. The RB duties land in the lap of Greg Jones, with some carries going to LaBrandon Toefield and Alvin Pearman. Toefield had 2 rushing attempts in last week’s game vs. Arizona, and Pearman had 1. So it looks like it’s Greg Jones all the way for 20-25 carries/game.

Why should this up Garrard’s production to 200 yards/game? Well at 3.7 yards/rush Jones isn’t exactly an offensive weapon. He’s a good player, but anyone who watched him get stuffed by Arizona’s line knows that he can’t do it against 8-man fronts. Jones was having a pretty sub-par game before his 25-yard TD run in the 4th, carrying the ball 20 times for 50-something yards. And that’s against Arizona.

So why should Garrard produce against Cleveland, Tennessee, San Francisco, and Houston? Well, Fred Taylor is going to stay on the sidelines until he’s 100%. That could, and should, be about 2-3 weeks. He’ll probably be ready to go against Indianapolis on the 11th, but I can’t see him finishing the year against the 49ers, Houston, and Tennessee. With his injury history Jack Del Rio will want to keep him healthy for the playoffs. That means more Greg Jones and more David Garrard.

If defenses continue to stack the line against Jones then Garrard is going to be forced into passing situations. That’s not a bad thing. David Garrard is a very good QB, and Ernest Wilford, Jimmy Smith, and Matt Jones are all very capable receivers. You can accidentally pass for 200 yards against Houston, Tennessee, and San Francisco. And Garrard is almost guaranteed to score rushing TDs in each of those games.

Garrard threw 26 times for 115 yards last week after stepping in for Leftwich. Assuming he throws 25+ times in the stretch run then you’re looking at a career yards/attempt of around 7 multiplied by 25. That’s a measly 155 yards. The difference is the teams he’s about to go up against are ranked 15th, 20th, 30th, and 32nd in total D. With the exception of Indy, not a single team on Jacksonville’s sched. surrenders fewer than 200 yards of passing/game.

So you’re basically looking at averages. The Jags can play all the conservative football they want at 8-3, but it just doesn’t make sense to go with the light touch against really bad teams.