Kelvim Escobar Scouting Report

Here’s the first in a series of profiles on 2006 fantasy baseball breakout candidates. Who knows how many I’ll cover, but I like the idea of going in-depth on guys you’ll see short blurbs on in your fantasy magazines.

I’m taking a shot at Kelvim Escobar as my first breakout candidate of the season. It’s hard to tell how good or bad Escobar was last year because he started the season hurt. He shut himself down in early June, opting to have minor elbow surgery to remove some bone spurs. Those little slivers of bone had caused his velocity to drop from 96-97 to 90-91. When he finally decided his rehab strategy wasn’t going to work he was 2-2 with a 3.54 ERA and 46 Ks in 40 innings pitched. Not too bad for a guy who couldn’t throw his fastball anymore.

So how did Escobar get by in the low-90s? Well, he used his tremendous breaking stuff. Escobar’s splitter is, for my money, the best in baseball. It’s better than Schilling’s, and better than Haren’s. At 90-91, Escobar is basically Danny Haren. But at 96-97 he’s easily a $15-20 pitcher.

Kelvim came back and finished the year in the bullpen, going 3-2, 3.02 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 63:21 K:BB, 44 hits in 59 IP, and a .207 BAA.

In 2004 he was 11-12, 3.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 191:76 K:BB, 192 hits in 208 innings, and a .244 BAA. Look at that WHIP and those hit and K totals. Pitchers who don’t give up hits and K a batter/inning don’t post 3.93 ERAs. That number was going to come crashing down in 2005, but injuries made sure that wouldn’t happen.

Escobar is 30 this year, a prime breakout age for pitchers. He’s been around since 1997, always posting good BAA and K totals. It’s almost unfathomable to believe he’ll continue to be just another above-average pitcher. Rich Harden deserves all the hype, but Escobar is quietly throwing 97 with a curve and splitter. In the NL that would mean 200+ Ks and a microscopic ERA and WHIP. Escobar’s taken a long time to develop, but he’s playing on grass for a good team and he’s learning to throw strikes. If he walks 3/9 IP then the WHIP drops, the ERA drops, and he wins 15+ games with a 3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 200 Ks.