Let’s try to reach a concensus on the Packers’ new “star” RB: is he good, or is he…Samkon Gado?

Gado’s the latest in a line of late season NFL backups and 4th string RBs who come in for awful teams and manage to put up yards. Off the top of my head, I can name averagebacks like Justin Fargas, Jonathan Linton, Mewelde Moore, Domanick Rhodes, Amos Zereoue, Marcel Shipp, Quentin Griffin. And the list goes on.

Over the past 4 games Gado’s carried the ball 85 times for 364 yards. He’s scored 3 TDs, and fumbled twice. His 2 big games came against Philadelphia and Detroit, with the 171 yard performance at home to the Lions serving to completely skew his season averages. He’s picking up 3.9 yards/carry, and averaging about 20 carries/start (137 carries in 7 starts).

Those aren’t great numbers. Just as a comparison, Greg Jones is averaging 3.4 yards/carry against an equally weak schedule. I’d rather have Gado then Jones, but you have to remember that Greg is a fullback.

Samkon’s 23, and a very nice NFL success story. He was the 3rd string RB on his NCAA division 1-AA Liberty squad, but somehow believed he could make it in the NFL.

Before Ahman Green went down he was averaging 3.3 yards/carry. He’s a free agent at the end of the year, and who knows where he’ll end up. I don’t think the Packers want to go into 2006 with Samkon as their starting RB, but they have serious money issues that make signing a star RB unlikely. Samkon will probably share carries with Najeh Davenport next year, making him a well below average fantasy option.

RB is probably the easiest position to play in the NFL. That’s why you see guys coming off the street and starting later in the season. Assuming you understand how to submarine a guy on a blitz pickup, the only other thing you have to worry about is not fumbling the ball. Samkon and about 100 other 3rd stringers could average 3+ yards/carry, so the question is whether the offensive line they’re running behind is good enough to get them TDs. In the Packers’ case, Gado’s scoring because of a weak schedule and a reckless QB who doesn’t mind throwing on running plays. He’s like a lesser version of a contemporary Jerome Bettis, which should tell you all you need to know about his long-term potential as a starting tailback. He runs a 4.43/40, (better than Bettis’s 4.54) but his footwork isn’t too refined.

I have trouble believing in Gado as anything more than a decent backup on a terrible team. When Green Bay played Minnesota a few weeks ago, Samkon was held to 7 yards on 10 carries. The truth is, no one should be able to run behind the Packers’ offensive line. That includes Samkon Gado.

Update (20/12/05):Gado tore his MCL in Monday’s blowout against the Ravens. He’ll be out for at least 8 months. By the time he gets back I’m assuming Najeh Davenport and his broken ankle will be back on the field. Torn knee ligaments are about the worst thing that can happen to a running back. Injuries to that area limit lateral movement. Davenport is an unrestricted FA after the season, so there’s a real possibility that Green Bay loses him. Since Ahman Green isn’t coming back, Gado could be the backup by default.