In 2003 Cliff Lee went 3-3, with a 3.61 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 44:20 K:BB in 52 IP. In 2004 the ERA ballooned to 5.43, the WHIP to 1.50, and the K:BB to 161:81. He gave up 188 hits in 179 innings, and finished 14-8.

Zach Duke, the Pirates’ soft-tossing lefty probably won’t follow Lee’s career path. For one thing, he’s in the NL. So regardless of how bad he pitches, there’s no way he can post a 5.43 ERA. Oliver Perez was just disgustingly bad last year and he still managed to come in at 5.85. He was just throwing 90 mph fastballs down the heart of the plate. Even though Duke’s young, he’s not going to go out there every five days and toss underhand.

Zach Duke, like quasi-namesake Zack Greinke, is just a solid pitcher. He doesn’t have any flash, and his stuff is completely average. He throws a low-90s fastball, which he complements with a curve. He’s only good when he commands the strike zone and lets batters put the ball in play.

On the mound he looks a little like Joe Kennedy and Jamie Moyer. He gets all his momentum working towards the right side of the plate in an effort to get his fastball in on righties. His curve is similar to Ted Lilly’s, which means it’s good, but not great. I wouldn’t call it a strikeout pitch.

Duke is 23, and coming off an 8-2 , 84.2 IP, 79 hits, 58:23 K:BB, with a 1.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and .253 BAA season.

Look at the low walk total and the low K total. Duke is getting hit, but the ball’s being caught. That’s not a recipe for success. If he keeps making his pitches then there’s no reason he can’t be the David Wells of the NL for the next 10 years. But he’s young, inexperienced, and playing for a bad Pirates team. I think 12 wins, a 3.95 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 100 Ks are what you’re looking at for Duke this year.

You have to understand that the game’s best lefties are only good for 3 reasons: They bring serious heat; they throw great breaking balls; or they’re in the NL. That last one means Duke is going to have a chance to post good totals in every category but Ks. He’s still not someone you want to be spending double-digit dollars on.