In the wake of their most recent pedestrian loss, I’ve decided to pose a question that nobody north of the Florida-Georgia border seems to be asking: is Byron Leftwich good?

Leftwich came out of Marshall in 2003, a 1st round (7th overall) pick of the Jags. He’s huge at 6′5, 245, and he’s got either the best, or the second best, fastball in the NFL. Favre still might have him beat, but I’d say the difference is negligible.

One thing stands out about Byron that has really seemed to hurt a Jaguars offense that moves downfield in short gulps: he doesn’t run. For a lot of other teams that wouldn’t be such a big deal. But when your offense is predicated on short-yardage plays then you’re going to need your QB to scramble for 1st downs. Byron is just as slow as Trent Green who, at least statistically, is a better rusher. (Green averaged 2.3 yards/carry on 35 attempts. Leftwich averaged 2.2 on 31.)

Strangely enough, the best comparison player for Leftwich is probably Trent Green. Both play in run-first offenses, both are pocket-passers with little mobility, and both rely on mediocre receivers to get downfield. The difference is that Leftwich averaged 60 fewer yards of passing offense/game, attempting a whopping 200 fewer attempts than TG. Well, at least it seems whopping when you don’t factor in that Byron only played 11 games. His 15 TDs in those contests mean he would probably have hit 20+ in a full season with 3000 yards passing. That’s a very good year for anyone. And had he achieved it we would all be obligated to stand up and acknowledge him. But he’s still never cracked 15 TDs in his 3 year career, and David Garrard is too good to sit on the bench.

I’m not suggesting that Leftwich gets benched any time soon. His QB rating has climbed from 73 in 2003, to 82 in 2004, to 89 in 2005. He only tossed 5 Ints this year, and was actually the league’s 9th highest rated passer. QB Stat Leaders.

Here’s my conclusion: You can factor in all the stats you want, but you have to acknowledge the fact that the Jaguars 2 highest scoring games this year came with David Garrard at the helm (38 vs. Houston, 40 vs. Tennessee). In both of those contests it was the running game that racked up points. The Jaguars don’t score big because they don’t have big-play players in the passing game. Given his mobility and some added experience, David Garrard could be the better option at quarterback. Leftwich can’t get out of the pocket, meaning opposing defenses crowd the line against him. That stops runs up the middle, which means everything is short-yardage. Leftwich averaged 7 yards/attempt this year, which, given the number of passes he threw, is in-line with what Chris Simms did in Tampa.

Leftwich is good, but the Big Molasses is not the kind of QB who is going to carry his team to any kind of playoff glory. He needs the effort to come from his supporting cast, with the understanding that he’ll put the ball where it’s supposed to be.

Jimmy Smith is 36, and a possession receiver. Ernest Wilford’s a possession receiver, Matt Jones is a possession receiver, and Reggie Williams is a possession receiver. With Leftwich’s laser arm that means up-the-middle, up-the-middle, and short pass up-the-middle. Good, but certainly not good enough to get past the Wild-Card round in this, or any, year.

David Garrard’s a free agent in the off-season and he’s good as gone. There are plenty of teams around the NFL that want him as a starter. So what happens to the Leftwich-led Jaguars? 11-5 or 10-6 seasons.