Some people seem caught up in John Lackey’s 2005 “Cy Young” season. He had a great year, but can we buy the 16 Win, 3.5 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 200 K projections? Put simply: No.

Pardon me for being the sole dissenting voice here, but these forecast totals are way off-base. When Lackey came up in 2002 some analysts were saying he might eventually be as good as Halladay. There were 2 problems with that prediction: 1) Lackey’s fastball was straight 2) His breaking ball K pitch was nowhere near Halladay’s curve.

Last year he developed a splitter and started striking people out. It’s not that it was such a great pitch; it’s just that no one had ever seen him throw it before.

Even though he managed to K 199 and keep his WHIP at 1.33, he still gave up 208 hits in 209 IP. He’s always given up more hits than IP, and until last year his OBA hadn’t been below .267. I don’t buy the big breakout. Lackey’s stuff doesn’t support these kind of predictions.

200+ Ks? His previous high was 151 in 204 innings. He’s thrown well over 600 IP in the last 3 seasons and his ‘05 saving grace were the fortuitous winds that kept all but 13 of his pitched balls from leaving the yard.

Doesn’t it seem strange to forecast 200+ Ks from a pitcher with a mid-3 ERA? Usually that kind of stuff gets you in the 2s. Look at the 200+ K pitchers from ‘05: Santana, Johnson, Peavy, Carpenter, Pedro, Brett Myers, Doug Davis, Carlos Zambrano.

Let’s pretend that we don’t know NL K totals are inflated by about 30 Ks from greasing weak-hitting pitchers. The only pitcher among those names to give up 1 hit/IP was Lackey. The 2nd closest was Old Man Johnson with 207 hits in 225 innings.

And the guys with 3.5+ ERAs? Myers, Davis, and Johnson, with 31, 26, 32 HRs allowed, respectively. Remember that Lackey allowed 13.

I want to compare him to Brett Myers, or an older Curt Schilling: Lackey doesn’t throw more than 92 mph, but there’s something about a splitter that makes an average pitcher worth noticing. Add a little flutter to the fastball and suddenly the guy’s piquing your interest.

So my humble opinion: he got lucky. Danny Haren is a better pitcher, and Lackey can’t be the AL Brett Myers while posting superior numbers than the NL version. I imagine some people will disagree, and I look forward to the discussion.