When I first saw Juan Cruz pitch in 2001 I had a feeling the guy was going to be great. He was throwing 98 mph with incredible movement, and it would have been impossible for anyone not named Neo to hit his slider. So what’s happened to Juan? Well I was checking the line scores from the Dominican League playoffs and I saw another average outing: 4 IP, 5:2 K:BB, 3 Runs, 6 Hits. That’s really hard to believe.

Cruz, 28, has bounced around the past few years. He was in Chicago in ‘03, Atlanta in ‘04, and Oakland in ‘05. The Braves got their money’s worth from him, sticking Juan in a 7th inning role and getting a 2.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 70:30 K:BB in 72 IP, with 59 Hits.

He looked good, not great. But it still seemed like he might have found his niche as a reliever. Then he goes to Oakland and posts a season of: 32.2 IP, 38 Hits, 34:22 K:BB, 7.44 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, .290 OBA.

How many relievers with 98 mph 2-seam fastballs barely manage to K 1 batter/inning? Steve Shields (for my money the best middle-reliever in baseball) has the exact same repertoire as Cruz, only he can barely get it up to 94 mph. Juan Cruz should be absolutely dominant, another Pedro Martinez. Instead he’s another Kerry Ligtenberg.

Cruz’s problem is obviously control and command of his pitches. His lowest BB rate has been around 4/9 IP. He doesn’t seem to give up a ton of hits or HRs, but his ERA is never where you think it ought to be. Leo Mazzone obviously clicked with Cruz, but you’d hope he’d be able to re-create the Braves experience outside of Atlanta. After all, he’s 28 and it’s time to mature. Why is throwing a strike in Atlanta any different than throwing a strike in Cleveland?

Cruz was bad last year. His velocity was way down and his pitches had flattened out considerably. He was shut down later in the season with arm and shoulder problems, which would seem to explain everything. Still, when he came back in September he was just as ineffective as he had been all year.

Can Cruz come back and be the star his stuff merited? At this point it looks like he’s just another washed up prospect who can’t even ratchet it up in Winterball. He still can’t command his pitches and his velocity looks to have nosedived. That means you’d be crazy to take a chance on him at your draft. Watch him closely if you want, but, like Kip Wells, Cruz is just another pitcher who never figured it out.