Here’s my 7-Up list of the pitchers you’ve got a reasonable shot at landing in your fantasy baseball draft. Note that I said “reasonable.” That means under $20 in a mixed-auction, or past the 5th round in a snake draft. If your league lets Johan go for $15 then you don’t even need to be reading this, do you? Go out and pick up Pujols for a sawbuck and win the damn thing.

1: CC Sabathia: I’ve been waiting for Sabathia to have his breakout season for the past 3 years. He’s a left-handed pitcher who throws a 97 mph fastball, but he can’t seem to turn the corner. He was 15-10, 4.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .248 OBA, and 161:62 K:BB in 2005. His ERA over his last 10 starts was a little below 2, and his K-rate was around 9/9 IP. Considering he’s 26, and he’s been pitching in the majors since ‘01, this is his breakout year. If it doesn’t happen now, it probably won’t ever happen. In the NL he’s be a 20-game winner on a good team, but there’s no reason he can’t win 18 in the AL with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.

2: Danny Haren: I didn’t have any faith in Haren when the A’s picked him up, but the guy grew on me as the season progressed. He throws an excellent 2-seam fastball that he keeps low in the zone, and his slow-breaking curve seemed to fool AL batters on his first go ’round. I think hitters will be on him this year, but he represents good value for a late-round pick. His OBA was .255 last year, and his 163:53 K:BB shows he’s got decent control. I don’t doubt that he’ll get hit hard this year, but an ERA in the high-3s is a possibility. His numbers have improved every year since his debut (ERA: 5.08 to 4.50 to 3.73; WHIP 1.46 to 1.35 to 1.22; OBA .293 to .265 to .255). That’s a good sign and enough of a reason to want him at $10-15.

3: Kelvim Escobar: Escobar is the most underrated pitcher in the AL, a flame-throwing K machine who is going to have a $25 season very soon. He was hampered by some some bone chips in his elbow last year, but was on pace for a 190+ K season with a low-mid 3 ERA. If Kelvim’s back throwing 95-97 then he’s going to win 18 games over a healthy season. At 29, he’s just entering his pitching prime and you should be able to get him for $15 or less.

4: Erik Bedard:Bedard was on his way to a 15-win, 170 K season before straining his MCL and heading to the DL. When he came back at the end of the season he was completely average, killing his ERA and WHIP and blowing a good comeback year. That means he’s going to be cheap going into 2006, and represents a prime buy opportunity for fantasy players looking for 150-170 Ks, a high-3 ERA, and maybe 12-15 wins. Those aren’t great numbers, but Bedard does have a ton of breakout potential. I’m not going overboard and saying he’s going to pull a Dontrelle, but if Mazzone gets him straightened out he has the talent to be a little better than Mark Buehrle. I’ve always compared Bedard to Ted Lilly. Definitely worth a look as a late-round pick.

5: John Patterson: The fact that Patterson only won 9 games last year should keep him below $20. He’s the NL’s next Jason Schmidt, which means you should invest your mid-round pick and land him for your team. Patterson Kd 185 in 198 innings, while posting a .233 OBA. He Kd over a batter/inning in 2004, but his OBA was .266. If he can hold batters to a .233 average while maintaining his good 2-seam fastball and curve then he immediately becomes the NL’s Roy Halladay. With improved control he’s just as good as Jake Peavy.

6: Scott Kazmir:You’re guaranteed to get him for $15 or less. His 3.77 ERA and .248 OBA means the hype was right. At 21 Kazmir gave up 172 hits in 186 IP, and Kd 174. His problem right now is his command; he walked 100. This is the year he learns to throw strikes. Provided he stays healthy he’s the #1 keeper-pitching prospect in baseball (Felix Hernandez is either 1-A, or a close 2nd). Kazmir was hitting 97 at the beginning of the season, and his velocity wasn’t down more than a couple of MPH in August despite throwing about 30 more innings than he’d gone in his 3-year minor league career. My only concern is he’s a two-pitch pitcher, and his slider really isn’t as good as people think. Hopefully he learns to throw his change.

7: Daniel Cabrera:Cabrera is the ultimate $1-5 investment. He’s liable to explode and destroy your ERA and WHIP, but he’s so talented that he’s going to be one of the AL’s Top-5 pitchers in the next 5 years. Cabrera is what Rafael Soriano would have been had he stayed healthy and worked in the starting rotation. He has 157 Ks in 161 IP last year, and he throws 97-99 mph. He gave up 144 hits in those 161 IP, yet somehow his ERA was 4.52. The problem was the 87 walks, which pushed his WHIP to 1.43. Pitchers who throw 99 mph 2-seamers are generally worth a spec pick. With Mazzone on board in Baltimore you may be looking at another Carlos Zambrano.

I’ll add a few more guys who have the ability to be huge at the MLB level, but haven’t done anything to date.

Dustin McGowan: A true power pitcher with a change-up, slider, and 2-seamer at 95-96 mph. How many power pitchers do you know who throw plus changeups? McGowan had a tough year coming back from TJ surgery, but at 24 there’s still plenty of time to develop. 45 IP last year, 49 hits, and 34 Ks.

Brandon McCarthy: After leading the minors in Ks in 2004, McCarthy came back in the late stages of 2005 and posted a 3-1 record, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 7 starts. He commands his pitches extremely well, and throws a low-90s moving fastball and a very nice overhand curve. Since command is 9/10 of the equation in pitching, McCarthy will be a 15 game winner with low-mid 3 ERAs. He’s supposed to open the season in the bullpen, meaning you might be able to get him at a discount. When a guy with a 2-seam fastball manages to K 48 in 67 IP, and post a WHIP of 1.18 in his rookie season, you want him.