What If…Rafael Soriano had kept his Ulnar Collateral Ligament and his 96 mph fastball intact? He’d be the 5th best closer in the AL right now behind Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Francisco Cordero.

Soriano, 27, emerged in 2003 with a 1.53 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP over 53 Innings Pitched. He struck out 68, walked 12, and gave up 30 hits. He hurt his arm in the winter and tried to pitch into the regular season, but he was completely ineffective and was eventually shut down, undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2004.

Soriano came back in September 2005, throwing 7 innings, striking out 9, surrendering 6 hits, and walking 1. He also had 11 Ks in 5 innings at AAA Tacoma. He’s pitching in the Dominican Winter League and doing all right. The strikeouts aren’t really there, which is kind of leading me to believe he’s never going to be the same pitcher that he was pre-surgery. A couple years ago he went into Winterball and threw for a 0.21 ERA. That campaign was actually touted as the greatest ever performance by a pitcher in the Dominican league. That was the winter he hurt his arm.

Some guys regain their repertoire and others, like Jesse Foppert, have to live with diminished stuff. Soriano will always be a reliever (he only really throws a fastball and slider), so his value all depends on whether he regains the velocity and “life” on his fastball. That life is what made him an attractive commodity. A 96 mph fastball isn’t so out-of-the-ordinary these days, but the ball left Soriano’s hand with some really late, jagged movement that made it very difficult to square up on.

I didn’t think he looked particularly good in his September comeback, and I’d wait at least a week into the regular season to see if he’s throwing well. Spring Training actually might be early enough to judge, since he’s been pitching all winter. I think he might be hitting 93, but my concern is that the life’s gone from his pitches, and his fastball is straight.