Sometimes the season’s over and you’re looking at your fantasy magazines trying to figure out why you didn’t save room on your team for that year’s breakout players. Mixed league owners don’t have to be ashamed of missing out on guys like Jason Bay or Travis Hafner in their bust-out seasons. So you missed out on Jorge Cantu? Well what exactly was it about him that should have piqued your interest? Was it the fact that he was 23 going into last season? Was it the fact that he had 2 career MLB HRs and 17 RBIs? Was it the fact that he had a 4:1 K:BB ratio in almost 2,400 minor-league ABs, and a 6:1 K:BB in 173 ABs for Tampa? It couldn’t have been his .266 career average?

So you missed out on Cantu. In the spirit of identifying breakout candidates who have done absolutely nothing in their major-league careers, I thought we’d take a look at Casey Kotchman. Kotchman was supposed to be the next Todd Helton. That was in 2004. People didn’t stop to think that the kid was 21, and that his biggest minor-league power output came in 2003 when he hit 10 jacks in 64 games. Plus, you’ve got to remember that he doesn’t play in Colorado.

Casey got squeezed for playing time in ‘04 and ‘05, but the Angels are committed to starting him at 1B in 2006. They’ve moved Darin Erstad to the outfield, and all indications are that Kotchman will play in somewhere around 140 games. Juan Rivera can play when Erstad and GA get hurt, so I’m guessing he only plays vs. really tough lefties. Erstad’s only 32, and he can still play. But it doesn’t make sense to let him steal ABs from Kotchman when he’s only giving you .275/10/70. You can handle that in the OF where his defense will actually mean something. But you don’t sacrifice Kotchman because Darin’s good in the clubhouse.

Casey went .278/7/22 last year in 126 ABs. He should hit 20 HRs, and drive in 85 RBIs, while keeping his average in the high .270s. I’d really like to see what he’s doing this spring before I make any real predictions. He has a very good swing, and if his timing’s on and his bat looks quick then he’ll hit 100 RBIs batting behind Guerrero, Anderson, and McPherson. That’s a lot of lefties in a row, but who’s going to break them up? Erstad? I don’t see why Casey can’t hit 5th, but we’ll see what happens.

He does look a little bit like Nick Johnson; though at 6′2, 195, Casey’s 40 pounds lighter. Johnson would be worth $20 on a good AL team, and Kotchman will be worth $15 playing for the Angels. At the worst he’s a .300/15/90 player (another Lyle Overbay). So bid accordingly. Somewhere between Overbay and Chad Tracy seems right. Remember that Kotchman and Tracy have identical body-types, and pretty damn similar minor-league and major league stats pre-2005.

I do have a nagging feeling that he could just be another Erubiel Durazo. But we’ll see.