A lot of names get kicked around in prospect rankings that tend to draw their cachet only by virtue of being mentioned so often. 99% of fantasy owners have never seen Alex Gordon swing a bat. And if you want a big surprise, take a look at Howie Kendrick. A lot of the time we don’t even know skin colour, let alone stuff.

So I’m taking a stab at a Chad Billingsley scouting report, knowing that most people only know him as the 22-year-old Dodgers’ pitching prospect who Kd 162 in 146 IP last year at AA Jacksonville. That, by the way, was his second go ’round at AA.

Chad had a great ‘05, going 13-6/3.51/1.14 WHIP/116 Hits in 146 IP. His K:BB was 162:50, and he surrendered less than 1 HR/9 IP (0.74). Taking those stats into account, it’s hard to imagine how he managed to compile a 3.51 ERA. He walked 3/9 IP, didn’t give up any hits, and didn’t give up any HRs. So discount the average (yes, for a blue-chip pitching prospect a 3.51 ERA in AA is average).

Chad was the 24th overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft. He’s 6′2, 195, and throws a “moving” fastball in the mid-90s. My guess is he works at 92 mph when he gets to the majors. I know everyone’s telling you “mid-high 90s,” but it’s really 92-94. He also throws a slider, which scouts say is probably the best in the LA system.

Any RHP with a low 90s 2-seam fastball is going to have success in the NL if he can command it within any degree of reason. The question becomes “when does he get the call-up?” He’s behind Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Odalis Perez, and Jae Seo. Jonathan Broxton’s a reliever now, so Billingsley really only has to beat out Brett Tomko and D.J Houlton. That’s not going to happen. LA just signed Tomko to a 2-year, $8.7 milion deal and he’s rounding out the rotation. It’s almost a lock that Billingsley will spend a few months in AAA; and don’t be surprised if he spends the year down there. They just don’t need him as a 5th starter. Maybe he gets 20 IP at the MLB level.

In 2007 take a look at Dustin McGowan and Chad Billingsley as your AL and NL sleepers: same repertoire, same power, same opportunity. Billingsley has the same stuff as an older Clemens (obviously without the pinpoint command), and that’s NL gold.

*Note
There seems to be a lot of interest in Billingsley. He was demoted to the Dodgers’ minor-league camp today (3/20/06), and he’ll start the year in AAA. He finishes his MLB spring with a 3.86 ERA/.297 OBA (opponents’ batting average)/ 11 hits in 9 IP, and a 6:2 K:BB. Clearly, for all the hype that’s been associated with Chad, he’s not ready right now to contribute at the big-league level. And with Jae Seo pitching so well in the WBC it looks like he’s going to have to wait for an injury. Hopefully he doesn’t regress in AAA.