You’ve probably heard about Justin Verlander by now. Rookie pitchers who throw 98-99 mph generally pop up on the radar. Especially when they’re coming off an 11-2 season with a 1.29 ERA, 136 Ks in 118 IP, with 81 hits allowed. And a AA ERA of 0.28 with a WHIP of 0.55 in 32.2 IP.

My thoughts? Too bad for Justin he’s not in the National League. We all saw what happened to Rich Harden in his first couple seasons: 4.46 ERA in ‘03, 3.99 ERA in ‘04. Justin can work at 98 with a running 2-seam fastball, but he doesn’t have Harden’s vicious splitter. In 11 MLB innings he walked 5 and Kd 7, giving up 15 hits. I don’t know why, but guys weren’t having any trouble making contact with his fasball. He was throwing pretty damn close to 100 mph, but it seemed to be a slow 100. That’s the difference between an “explosive” fastball, and a regular 2-seamer: a curveball is basically an optical illusion. The rotation on the seams tricks the batter into believing the ball’s actually moving. Same with your “explosive” fastball. The movement on the pitch makes it appear as if the ball’s accelerating as it reaches the plate. Justin throws hard, but you can see the ball right out of his hand.

I was thinking that a good comparison player for Verlander is John Smoltz. They’re both big guys (Verlander is 6′5), and both rely on 2-seam heat. Smoltz throws a slider, and Verlander has a curve. The difference right now is that Verlander’s curve isn’t that big out pitch. Why? Well, because he doesn’t throw it. He’s a fastballer who’s missing that wobble on the ball. Just watch bad hitters foul off his stuff and you’ll realize he’s missing a devastating strike-3 pitch.

He’s going to be on pitch counts, and they’re not going to let him break out his offspeed stuff. This is a kid the Tigers want to keep healthy. He’s only 23, and you know they think he can get by on his fastball. His command was very good in the minors, but when MLB hitters keep fouling off your stuff you’re going to start issuing walks.

My prediction for ‘06: 25 starts, 11-7, 4.30 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 150 IP, 135 Ks. He needs to bring out the curve and throw it for strikes. This spring, he’s 2.63 ERA/13.2 IP/12 Hits/12:5 K:BB. It’s hard to find fault with Verlander, but it all boils down to the fact that he’s a rookie; and rookie pitchers in the AL almost never pay off. Of course, there are always exceptions: Mussina, Zito, Buehrle. But those guys aren’t power pitchers, and two of ‘em throw gimmick pitches.

Verlander’s 23, he’s the 5th starter on an average team, and he’s never thrown more than 130 IP in a season. I won’t be surprised if he follows the Bonderman curve.