Finally, a Giants’ pitching prospect who isn’t all hype. Finally a Giants’ pitching prospect who has a chance of living up to his scouting reports. Finally, a Giants’ pitching prospect who can break a pane of glass with a fastball. They got burned with Jesse Foppert, Kurt Ainsworth, and Jerome Williams (all because of injuries). It’s time to have a Giants’ pitching prospect come through.

Matt Cain made his MLB debut on August 29, going 5 innings against Colorado, giving up 3 hits. He walked 4, struck out 2, and gave up 2 earned runs. Over the next 6 starts he surrendered 21 hits in 41 IP, walked 15 and Kd 28. Opposing players hit .151 off him, and, despite the walks, his WHIP was lower than Roger Clemens’s at 0.93.

Matt was throwing 94,95,96,97 in his debut, meaning 94 is about the right velocity to expect from him. The reason he racked up so few Ks is because he was only throwing fastballs. If they let him mix in a few curves then he might pick up 150 punchouts this season. But the fact that he was able to have so much success throwing 90% fastballs shows that he’s probably not going to tail off too much in his second season. Major league hitters need time to adjust to new pitchers, but they’re generally very good at sitting on any kind of fastbal. That’s why it’s so surprising that Matt was able to have so much success despite the fact that he walked 19 in 46 innings. He didn’t miss his location over the plate, and he kept his pitches down. Those are both very good signs for a 22 year old pitcher.

Cain could bust out this season, or he could throw 150 innings with a high 3 ERA and 100 Ks. His numbers don’t really make too much sense; , you’d think that a fast-ball throwing pitcher with below-average command wouldn’t be too much of an asset. But I have enough faith in Cain to predict, say, a campaign of 10-9, 175 IP, 155 hits, 125 Ks, 3.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .233 OBA.

Kip Wells of 2003 was the EXACT same pitcher that Matt Cain is in 2006. 94-96 mph fastball with movement down in the zone; average command; a very good breaking pitch that should pick up more Ks than it does. There’s no reason for an NL pitcher with a 94-96 mph fastball, even at 22-years old, to struggle. All he has to remember is keep the ball low in the zone.

Hope that his ‘04 injury (stress fracture in his pitching elbow) is behind him, and understand that Felipe Alou is going to let him go 175 innings if he’s healthy. He threw 191 IP between AAA and San Francisco in ‘05, and gave up 118 hits in 145 AAA innings with 176 Ks. He also gave up 4.5 BBs/9 IP.

Update (3/22/06)
Cain is getting rocked to the tune of a 7.43 ERA/ .312 OBA with 18 hits in 13 IP this spring. The good news is that his K:BB is 11:2.