Brandon Claussen: Fantasy Baseball Breakout Pitcher #2

Brandon Claussen started 2004 rehabbing from ’03 Tommy John surgery in AAA-Louisville. He went 4.86 ERA/ 1.45 WHIP/ 100 IP/ 98 Hits/ 111:47 K:BB. His K/9 IP was 10.2. At that point he was actually leading the International League in strikeouts. Why is any of that significant? Because last year, in his second season back from elbow surgery, Claussen cut his walk rate, improved his slider, and had a 3.92 ERA going into his final start.

He’s a 27-year old former top-prospect back after three years of post-op, and he’s a lefty in the NL. That’s enough to make you at least a little bit interested.

Here’s the reality of scouting NL pitching. Doug Davis, who couldn’t post a K rate over 5.1/ 9 IP in the AL, moves to the NL and starts striking out 8.4/ game. Why? Because he’s a lefty in the NL with an unorthodox delivery, who can change speeds and hit spots. Claussen couldn’t do any of that in the past, but he’s healthy and learning, and it seems like his time to go 3.75/1.35/160 Ks is now.

A couple years ago scouts were saying Claussen had the stuff to be the next Mark Buehrle: he threw a low-90s fastball and change, hit his spots, and went for outs, not Ks. His stuff and command obviously weren’t back in ’04, and he showed some decent progress in ’05. He’s got a 2.25 ERA and a .252 OBA this spring to go along with 12 Ks in 16 IP. He’s not that good, but keep him on your radar. His minor league K/ 9 IP was 9.44, and pre-surgery, he went 2.13 ERA/ 1.19 WHIP/ 131 IP/ 101 Hits/ 151: 55 K:BB at AA-Norwich. Then he rehabbed until ’03.

There’s value here, and some breakout potential. A 27-year old pitcher is still learning how to pitch, and a 27-year old pitcher who missed 2 seasons after TJ surgery is going to need at least a few years to get a feel for his game. Again, Claussen cut his BB rate by almost 2/ 9 IP last year and his WHIP dropped from 1.74 to 1.41. If you’re gonna fall in love with Chuck James and his 88 mph fastball, at least take a look at Claussen.