I was thinking about Matt Cain this morning and trying to peg a trend for the kid. He was great in his debut, but he’s been hammered in spring training. So I figured he might fall into the category of guys who take their lumps in their first full season and then go on to success in year 3. Guys like Cliff Lee. Even though I don’t like Cliff, you can’t argue with his $15 ‘05. So I decided to look for a guy going into his third year who’ll probably qualify as a bargain in your league. That guy’s David Bush.

David Bush went 6 scoreless innings today to lower his spring training ERA below 1. He’s thrown 20 IP, given up 2 Earned Runs, 20 Hits, and his K:BB is 14:2. That makes his era 0.90 and his WHIP 1.10.

You might not know much about Bush, a former 2nd round (55th overall) pick out of Wake Forest. He’s 26 years-old, 6′2, 210 lbs. He throws a 2-seamer at 91-92, a 4-seamer, curve, and change. And his command is superlative. His career minor-league walk rate is 1.7/9 IP in 348 total innings. And his major league walk rate is 2.08/9 IP. He can spot all his pitches, and his overhand curve and change are very nice.

Bush debuted for Toronto in 2004, going 3.69 ERA/1.23 WHIP/97 IP/95 Hits/64:25 K:BB. He had a slightly tougher time in 2005, going 4.49/1.25/136 IP/142 Hits/75:29 K:BB. Notice how sweet his WHIP was and take a look at his 1.91/9 IP walk rate.

Bush was dealt this winter, to Milwaukee, in the Overbay deal. It was the best thing that could have happened to him. He Kd 8.37/9 IP in the minors, so he’s not just a finesse pitcher. Now he’s in the NL where guys with 2-seamers and command can be 15 game winners with low-3 ERAs and 1.25 WHIPs. Bush’s age and MLB experience already make him a prime candidate for a breakout. But how many bargain/breakout players have you scouted with career 1.24 WHIPs? And in the AL? Usually those guys come with a reputation. That’s not the case for Bush, who’s still pretty much a no-name brand. If he was 1 hit/IP in the A.L East, he can easily be a 6-7 hit/9 IP guy in the NL. 6 hits/game and 2 walks would put his WHIP below 1. That’s not going to happen, but 1.2 is a pretty good forecast. And 150 Ks isn’t a stretch. With an improved Milwaukee offense behind him, I’d say Bush is a decent bet for 15/3.50/1.20/150 Ks. He’s at least as good as Tim Hudson was in ‘05. And going into ‘05 I actually had Hudson as a comparison player for Bush because of his sinker.