What does Jose Lopez have in common with Jhonny Peralta? Almost everything but his position. Lopez debuted in ‘04, going .232/5 HR/22 RBI for the Mariners. He posted a 31:8 K:BB in 207 ABs, and slugged .367. He started off ‘05 at AAA-Tacoma, and went .319/5/31 before being promoted to Seattle. He slugged .505 at AAA, then went .247/2/25 in 190 major-league ABs. His K:BB was 25:6 in 190 at-bats, and he hit 19 doubles.

Lopez is the Mariners’ starting 2B in ‘06. He’s 22, 6′2, 170, and he’s going to grow into a hitter’s body. He’s started his season hot, hitting .324/1/5 in 37 spring training at-bats, and his K:BB is 3:1. The interesting thing about Lopez is that he doesn’t tend to strike out a lot. In 1529 minor-league ABs, Lopez Kd 157 times. That’s pretty damn good contact for a “low-average” hitter.

Lopez is a year younger than Peralta, who broke out in 2005 after a .323/15/86/560 AB season at AAA-Buffalo. Lopez’s ‘05 minor-league numbers factor out to an almost identical season in 500+ ABs. And before ‘05 Lopez had actually put up better minor league totals than Peralta. Lopez slugged .453 in the minors; Peralta slugged .414. Lopez had 157 Ks in 1529 ABs; Peralta had 570 in 2265. Peralta hit .277 over his minor league career; Lopez hit .294.

And Peralta’s 6′1, 175. Close.

Lopez figures to eventually match Jhonny’s breakout season, but he may not go all the way to .290/25/80 this year. He’ll start the season in the bottom half of the line-up, and he’s not going to beat out Reed to hit #2. Plus, there’s no way he cracks the Beltre/Sexson/Ibanez trio. So I guess 6th or 7th is where he’ll have to do his damage. Unless he gets really hot and they hit him 3, which is a remote possibility. But, hey, you could’ve said the same thing about Peralta at the start of ‘05. There’ll be RBI opportunities at 6, so he could easily drive in 75-85. And, although Safeco isn’t a very good hitters’ park, he’ll probably still hit 15-22 HRs. I say .275/22/75 as a lower-end forecast, cognizant of the fact he’s only 22 and won’t be hitting in a prime spot in the order.