A few years ago I was watching a Jays-Angels game and Scot Shields took the hill as an emergency starter. He went 5 innings, picked up 8 Ks, gave up a run or 2, and won the game. I don’t think I’d ever seen him pitch before (how often do you tune into a game to watch a middle-reliever?) and I couldn’t help but wonder why this guy wasn’t in the rotation. He threw a low-90s 2-seam fastball with incredible sinking action, and his slider looked unhittable to right-handed batters. Yet he was a set-up man.

I took a look at Shields’s stats and my question was answered. In 2001 Scot started 21 games for AAA-Salt Lake. He went 6-11/4.97 ERA/104:31 K:BB/137 IP/141 hits. The next year he was in the bullpen and posted a 3.06 ERA/0.96 WHIP/50:6 K:BB/47 IP/39 hits. Some guys are meant to start, and others are meant to relieve.

So now we get to Madson. Ryan has been terrific over the last couple years in his 7th/8th inning role for the Phillies. He’s a converted starter, and this off-season he made it clear that he wants back in the rotation. He posted a 4.14 ERA/ 87 IP/84 hits/79:25 K:BB last year with his sinker/change/curve combo. He’s got an overhand delivery, throws in the low-90s (maybe 92 mph), and at 6′6 gets a good downward plane on the ball. He’s listed at 180 lbs, which I’d have to doubt. But he’s not thick; there’s no doubt about that.

Madson was a starter in the minors and had good success. He was a hit/inning guy with a 7.27 K/9 IP rate, and a 3.54 ERA over 5 minor-league seasons. Nothing special, but solid numbers across the board. The problem is that he’s going to lose something off his pitches by starting every 5 days. His fastball may lose velocity and sink, meaning he could turn into a finesse pitcher. But I guess the Phillies have to give him a shot. I liked him as a reliever, and he’s pitching well this spring (12.2 IP/11:3 K:BB/8 hits).

If he can keep his fastball in a starting role then he’ll be a good #3 in the NL. You’ve got to realize he’s more of a Jon Lieber than a Chris Carpenter (even though they share a similar arsenal). Madson and his jerky delivery could put a solid season, or he could be back in the bullpen by August. You’re going to have to wait to see what he looks like before making your move. Because if he’s lost velocity and movement you’re going to want to stay away. But so-far-so-good. And I’ve always said that an NL pitcher with a good sinking-fastball and an idea of how to pitch can’t help but win 12 games with an ERA right around 4. At his best, Madson’s Livan Hernandez. But, like I said, he looks more like a Jeff Weaver/Lieber kind of guy. Too bad Citizens’ Bank isn’t Dodgers’ Stadium.

Update (3/29/06)
Gavin Floyd’s in as the #5 starter, meaning Ryan Franklin is headed to the bullpen. Madson will slot in as the #4, and we’ll see if his spring ERA of 1.89 holds up.