The fantasy owner who can take a rational approach to prospects is about as rare as a GOP convention without booze. Everyone scours the ‘Net looking for Top 10 lists, and hyped kids like Jeremy Hermida end up going for double-digits in auction leagues. But let’s cool down and take a step back from the world of Mark Teixeira instant-superstardom. Alex Rios, hyped all the way back in 2004, is going cheap in 2006. You might want to take a look.

Rios, who turned heads after his ‘03 season at AA-New Haven, has looked a little like Tony Womack in a giant’s body at the MLB level. That AA season saw him hit .352/11/82 with a K:BB of 85:39 in 514 ABs. He stole 11 bases, and was caught 3 times.

Rios, who turned 25 in February, is a former 1st round pick (19th overall). He was drafted way back in 1999 at the Jeremy Bonderman-esque age of 17 (Bonderman was the first pitcher ever taken before his senior year in high school). Alex went .286/1/28 in his ‘04 major league debut, and his K:BB was 84:31 in 426 ABs. There was a ton of static in Toronto about the light touch in his swing, which made him look more like a guy trying to hail a taxi with a piece of lumber than a major-league hitter. He was just dropping the bat on the ball, trying to hit singles to the right side of the diamond (he’s a right-handed hitter). He started driving the ball a little better in ‘05, going .262/10/59. His K:BB was 101:28, and he stole 14 bases against 9 caught stealings. Not a good ratio for a guy with good overall speed.

Here’s Rios’s problem: when he was going the other way he was a contact hitter who hit for average. Why? Because he waited back on the ball and didn’t try to guess pitch selection. Maybe he can’t drive fastballs, because - maybe - he’s just not quick enough. Another, somewhat related, problem: he’s 6′5, 185. 185 is what you ought to weight if you’re a 6′0 accountant who jogs to work in the morning. That’s very Shawn Green, or Chloe Sevigny, of him. In fact, if we’re talking about comparison players for Rios, we may as well use an in-house example. Green was the Jays’ 1st round pick in the 1991 draft (16th overall). Like Rios, Green is tall and lanky (6′4, 200). Like Rios, Green was not a power hitter in the minors - he hit 13 HRs in 433 ABs at Syracuse in 1994. And like Rios, Green put up 11 HRs in his 2nd “full” season.

Green went .280/11/45 in 1996, with a K:BB of 75:33 and 5 SB against 1 CS. He didn’t break out until his 4th full season - 1998 - when Jose Canseco taught him the joys of .278/35/100, and 35 SBs. The previous year he’d gone .287/16/53 with 14 SBs. Although his K:BB hit 142:50 in his big season, Green became a much more disciplined hitter post-’98.

I won’t say, or wink, or imply anything about the fact that Green’s consolidation year came during Canseco’s first season in Toronto. So don’t accuse me of anything, please. It’s just a fact. Green, who was born in ‘72, was 26 when he broke out. Rios, however, has the benefit of a little more minor league/major league seasoning going into his third season. The problem is his minor league slugging % is .401. His MLB SLG% is .390 (.397 last year).

Rios is hitting .362/1/2 this spring, with 2 2Bs in 22 ABs. His K:BB is 3:0, and he’s stolen one bag. There are two possibilities here:

1: He becomes Larry Bigbie
2: He becomes Shawn Green

Bigbie, a 1st round pick in 1999, hit fewer minor league HRs than Rios, yet he out-slugged him by 0.016 points. Bigbie’s 6′4, 190, and both he and Rios were heralded as good defenders and good athletes, who would hit for average and grow into their power. Bigbie was seen as more of a singles-doubles hitter, but Rios has done nothing to suggest there’s a masher inside that frame. The only thing I can say about the guy is that he’s not a grunter, or a max-effort guy at the plate. When he pops-it, it’s effortless. So there’s something there.

I say one more year and Rios hits 25 HRs. He’s just not strong enough yet, and he doesn’t know enough about hitting to understand how to go for average AND power. Remember, 2 years ago he was a slap-hitter with a slap-hitter’s approach. Now he’s a 6′5 guy - getting stronger every year - who is learning at the major-league level. You’ll see improvement in 2006, but 2007 is really his year. He’s the kind of player who’ll be good all-at-once, or will fade away fast. Don’t expect, or look for, a progression.