Following up on my last post about why your league should have a minor league draft, I thought it would be pertinent to discuss why I chose to take Daisuke Matsuzaka in the second round of my Fantasy Baseball league’s minor league draft this year.

While it is true that the World Baseball Classic MVP will not technically be available for free agency from his Japanese team the Seibu Lions until after the 2008 season there has become increasing speculation that he could land in the majors as early as next season. As I noted in my last post, the minor league draft in a fantasy pool has the ability to land you the next great superstar (or a dud - Kaz Matsui anyone) at a low price and so sometimes its worth taking a leap of faith on a guy and that’s exactly what I did with Matsuzaka.

There is no doubt that this guy can pitch and pitch at the Major League Baseball level. He proved in the World Baseball Classic that he could pitch effectively against some of the best players in the world. He was 3-0 and allowed only 2 runs in the WBC. He struck out 10 batters in his 13 innings of pitching and overall against the Cubans in the finals he showed that he not only has the pitching ability to be a start at the MLB level, but also that he has the mental makeup and desire just as Ichiro did when he made the jump from Japan. He has twice pitched in the Olympics and true to all great pitchers even after giving up a first inning lead off homerun in the finals of the WBC he then shut down the Cubans by striking out five in the next four innings.

As reported by Jim Caple at ESPN, “Matsuzaka has been famous in Japan ever since an almost inconceivable performance in the country’s important Koshein high school baseball tournament, which is the equivalent of our NCAA basketball tournament. Matsuzaka threw a 250-pitch, 17-inning complete game in the semifinal and then pitched a no-hitter in the final. He threw close to 400 pitches in two days.”

So even with those credentials why would I pick him this year when he might not make it to the majors until 2008? It’s because just like any major pro sport in the world, money talks and that might allow Matsuzaka to walk. In Japanese baseball, teams are allowed to “post”- good description at this link - their players meaning that they accept sealed bids for the negotiating rights to the player and then take the highest offer so the player can then negotiate his own deal with a major league club. Such was the situation with Ichiro. The Seibu Lions are not stupid. Matsuzaka has already asked to be posted twice only to be denied, but by asking twice he has virtually ensured the team he will leave after the 2008 season and just like the practice of the “sign and trade” in the NBA, the Lions, knowing he is going to leave are not going to say good-bye without some cash in their pocket. It might be the end of this season or sometime during the next but sooner or later Matsuzaka is coming to the majors.

Being only 26 years old, he has many good years left and it is doubtful that whatever team pays to get him over to the majors (please for once let it not be the Yankees) is not gonna drop the type of cash it takes (by contrast the Mariner’s paid $13.1 million US for the negotiating rights to Ichiro) only to see him pitch his way up from Double A ball. He’ll be put right in someone’s rotation and so in my mind the question wasn’t why take a chance on him in the minor league draft, but rather why not take a chance on him.