JJ Putz Should Be Closing: JJ Putz Scouting Report
The interesting thing about Eddie Guardado’s career as a reliever is that he was actually pretty bad over his first eight seasons. Until his 45 save campaign in ‘02, Eddie had never posted a sub-3.5 ERA. He was just your average, 90-92 mph fastball, left-handed reliever. Then, in 2000, his ERA started dropping. He went from 4.50 to 3.94; from 3.94 to 3.51; from 3.51 to 2.93; from 2.93 to 2.89; from 2.89 to 2.78; and from 2.78 to 2.72. Yes, that’s ridiculous. But there’s a decent explanation: control. And an average splitter. Eddie’s WHIP dropped from 1.44 in ‘98. to 0.99 in ‘04. His hit rate dropped, his BB rate dropped, but his K rate has been pretty consistent - around 7-8/9 IP - through his career.
Now he’s 36, pitching with a partially torn labrum that he declined to have surgically repaired, and he’s finished.
Eddie’s throwing 90 mph fastballs, missing his spots, and he’s relying way too much on his defense. The logical choice to supplant him is 8th inning man JJ Putz, who has really figured it out over the last 162 games. I know you’re probably thinking it’s Rafael Soriano time, but JJ deserves first crack at the job. Let Soriano work the Scot Shields role this year.
JJ Putz, 29, is about the same age as Eddie was when things finally started to click. He’s 6′5″, 220, and former 6th round pick in the ‘99 draft. Very little about this guy’s career stats make any sense.
Despite a 94-96 mph fastball, Putz posted a career minor league K rate of 7.08/9 IP. For a RP, that’s terrible. Granted, he was a starter for his first couple seasons. But his first relief-only year saw him post a terrific 2.54 ERA with 69 hits allowed in 86 IP. Yet he only Kd 60, and walked 34.
JJ made strides in ‘05, posting a 3.60 ERA, 60 IP, 58 hits, and a 45:23 K:BB for the Mariners. He developed a splitter in the 2nd half, but his ERA and WHIP ballooned to 5.04 and 1.68, respectively, after the All-Star break.
Now he’s at 2.57, 1.14 WHIP, 14 IP, 12 hits, and a 21:4 K:BB. His OBA is .226, and he’s looking like the Mariners’ best RP - Soriano included.
JJ throws a 4-seam fastball 94-96 mph, a slider in the mid-80s, and a splitter at 89. The splitter runs down and in to righties, and is a legitimate big-league strikeout pitch. His slider is an odd pitch; it’s a slow frisbee away from righties that you’d probably have trouble hitting even it was belt high and you knew it was coming. Right now he’s using the slider and the fastball to set-up the splitter, which should continue to be effective. It’s one of the “disappearing” kind of splitters that just breaks straight down at the plate; 21 Ks in 14 IP are a testament to its quality.
Regardless of what you might hear about Soriano, JJ is next in line for the closer’s job. Considering the decline in Eddie’s stuff, I’d say Putz will start picking up saves within the next month. Provided he maintains his improved command, JJ even looks like a good bet to pick up somewhere in the area of 90 Ks. That means you can afford to roster him as a set-up man, and he’ll contribute even if he doesn’t close. But picking him up shouldn’t hurt you, and it seems worth the minimal risk.
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