Joel Zumaya Scouting Report: Hammer Time
They call Joel Zumaya, “Zoomer.” Right now the 6′2″, 210 Zumaya - pronounced zuh-MY-AH - is working the 8th inning for the Tigers, but in a few years he’s gonna be some team’s closer. Right now it all depends on how Fernando Rodney and Todd Jones hold up. Because if they stumble, Zumaya’s ready.
Joel, who’ll turn 22 in November, throws a 4-seam fastball at 96-100 mph. He has a two-seamer he works at 96, and it’s got good get-up away from left-handed batters. He’s also got a very nice hammer that he can drop at 82-84 mph. It looks a lot like Bobby Jenks’s K pitch, which is absolutely lethal when you’re throwing close to triple digits. His 4-seamer is straight, but I still think it’s unhittable
Zumaya is a former 11th round pick - 320th overall in the 2002 draft. He was absolutely awesome at AA-Erie in ‘05, going 8-3 with a 143:52 K:BB in 107 innings. He gave up 71 hits and kept his gem of an ERA at 2.77. A 1.15 WHIP is also pretty damn good for a power pitcher.
Zumaya kept the ball popping in AAA, going 2.66 ERA/56:24 K:BB/30 hits in 44 IP. He gave up 2 HRs in 44 IP! His career minor league stats: 508 Ks in 414 IP, 300 hits, and 1/2 an HR every 9 IP.
Zumaya’s a reliever, and he’s going to stay a late-inning specialist. Rodney was working at 90-93 today with his fastball, and Zumaya was hitting 99 with excellent command of his stuff. There’s an outside chance Zumaya closes this year, but that’d take a couple injuries. Then again, Rodney was throwing 95 a couple weeks ago. So who knows what’s going on?
Ideally, you’d like to see Joel get traded to an NL team that needs a closer. With his stuff he’d be a $20 RP almost instantaneously. It’s a treat to watch him pitch. He should keep his stuff in the ‘pen - he’d almost definitely lose velocity as a starter - and there’s no reason to think this guy can’t give you 75-90 Ks and a good ERA as a middle-reliever/set-up man. Rarely will you ever see a power-pitcher who can spot a 99 mph fastball on the outside corner. When Joel’s on, he’s automatic.
I know, as a baseball fan, you’re looking at Zumaya and saying “he’s 21, why rush him?” Well, here’s one of those rare examples where a guy’s young and ready. As a reliever, all Joel needs to do is go out there and unleash his stuff in 1-inning bursts.
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Comment by Matt on 16 April 2006:
I couldn’t agree more with you that Joel’s stuff is absolutely filthy. As a Detroit Tigers fan, I will say that there is NO CHANCE Zumaya will be traded. The Tigers haven’t had young pitching talent in years and this year we’ve got Bonderman (age 23), Justin Verlander (23), Zumaya (21) and Jordan Tata (23). It seems in recent years that the most successful teams (that don’t have huge payrolls) have used minor league pitching prospects to trade for talented position players… The fact is that NONE of these young guns are going anywhere because they have all arrived.
Bonderman was rushed to the bigs a few years ago and while he above-average stuff, his command escapes him at times and the 95 mph doesn’t move and comes in looking like a beachball (ala the Indians game on tax day). Leyland brings an NL attitude so Bonderman’s confidence should increase as the season wears on. Defense and run support haven’t been there for Bondy in his first few years, but Leyland and his small ball will undoubtedly remedy that. From a fantasy standpoint, Bondy’s numbers will be very similar to those from last year with a marginally lower WHIP and a few more Ks. Bonderman should be started every game and by the end of 2006 should settle in as the star he has been touted as for years. His career numbers and progression mirror that of Jason Schmidt and if that’s the case, 2007 will be Bondy’s breakthrough year.
Verlander was lights out last year as he rose through the minor league ranks. If you haven’t seen him pitch in person, you should make arrangements to do so. He consistently hits 98 on the radar gun and has a slide piece that rivals the Big Unit’s (without the the 6′10″ wingspan obviously). Verlander has already displayed signs of inconsistency this year and that probably won’t stop all season. If he pitches 200 innings, one should expect 10-12 wins, 4.35 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 130 Ks… The problem with V is that he will throw 7 shutout innings one game and follow it up with a 5 inning 5 run perfomance. In a mixed league, V should be started on a match-up basis before the all-star break. After mid-July, look for him to perform very consistently as long as his pitch count is monitored which has been talked about extensively on Detroit sports radio talk shows.
As you mention in your post, Joel Zumaya’s stuff is unhittable. I have never seen a 21 year old pitcher with better command of a 100 mph fastball. Fernando Rodney has done a decent job filling in for Todd Jones, but with both of them ahead of Joel on the closer depth chart, he probably will not get an opportunity to close in 2006. He will get a lot of work out of the bullpen and I could see him progressing like Mariano Rivera. I highly doubt that he will put up numbers like Mo’s 1995 campaign, 8 W, 110 IP, 135Ks, 2.09/.99, but I suspect they will be close if you subtract 30IP/30Ks and add a full point to his ERA. In an ideal situation, Jones is on the shelf all year and Rodney establishes himself as a reliable closer. At 27 years old, Rodney is entering his prime and could be good trade bait for a team that desparately needs a left-handed power hitter. No matter what though, Zumaya is a great option in both AL-only and mixed leagues and should be acquired in every keeper league.
Jordan Tata has emerged early this season as the primary middle relief option for the Tigers and has displayed why he was the Tigers minor league pitcher of the year last year. Other than making a few bad pitches in the first outing of his major league career his early season performance has been outstanding. He made is debut against the Rangers in his hometown and had hundreds of family and friends at the game so I can only imagine what was going on in his head… He looked great shutting down Cleveland after Bonderman got shelled on April 15th. Leyland keeps increasing his innings which may be a sign that they intend to give him a spot start or work him into the rotation. It’s possible that the Tigers will look to move Mike Maroth around the deadline to a contender in need of a left-handed arm which would pave the way for Tata in the rotation. Jordan wasn’t supposed to start the season on the team but at this point he is not going anywhere. With that said, it is impossible to predict Tata’s stats in 2006. With his high WHIP he is not an option in any league but if he moves to the rotation it will be interesting to see what he does. Keep in mind that if that occurs, Zumaya’s role out of the pen will increase dramatically which will undoubtedly raise his value as well.
We’ve seen in the past that most promising young staffs don’t deliver on their potential. In the early part of this decade, we saw both the Astros and the Marlins in the same position as the Tigers with 3 dominant young arms. I think the Tigers will turn out more like the Marlins did with three lasting stars(Dontrelle, Beckett and Burnett) than the Astros who for all intents and purposes, only had one pitcher work out(Oswalt, Backe, Miller).
Trackback by Sudoku Solver on 21 April 2006:
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Comment by Moneyball on 22 April 2006:
Matt thanks for your great comment…If you drop us a line via the contact form, maybe you’d like to contribute some guest pieces to the site??
Comment by Matt on 25 April 2006:
Sure I’ll contribute… what is the ‘contact form’?