Here’s the way it usually works: a young power pitcher makes his MLB debut and posts a 1:1 K:BB ratio. The next year he picks up a few more Ks and loses some BBs. Year 3: he widens the gap and his WHIP falls into the 1.30 range. In year 4 and beyond, he reaches his potential.

Coming into the season, everything looked right for Daniel Cabrera. His walk rate dropped 0.5/9 IP from ‘04-’05, and his K rate ballooned from 4.63/9 IP to 8.76/9 IP. His WHIP dropped from 1.58 to 1.43, and his fastball stayed just as fast.

So he comes out in his first couple starts of ‘06 and walks 16! The 25 year-old 6-7″ RHP from San Pedro de Macoris hasn’t just been bad this season, he’s been dangerous. His first start found him almost killing David Ortiz with a 96 mph fastball aimed at Papi’s ugly mug. And he wasn’t just walking people, he was WALKING people.

Cabrera lasted one-and-a-third against Boston, walking 7 and striking out one. He evened up his ratio is his second game, walking 9 in 5 IP and striking out 10. Eleven strike-outs in 6.1 IP is a nice number, but 17 BBs is comical.

The Devil Rays managed one run on three hits against Cabrera, which is more an indictment of T-Bay than it is a nod to the pitcher’s effort. No one wanted to stand in the box against the big righty, but he definitely wasn’t making good pitches. His ‘05 OBA was .235, meaning people can’t hit him. But there’s no way you can be an effective pitcher when you’re walking 100+ over 175 innings. Why? Because if you don’t know where the ball’s going then it’s just as likely to end up over the middle of the plate as on the outside corner. And walks sometimes - note the sarcasm - come into score.

I’m starting to hear rumours about Daniel’s emergent psychological issues . You’ve got to doubt these rumours’ veracity, but it wouldn’t be the first time a young pitcher forgot how to throw strikes. We’re really not that far-removed from Rick Ankiel. And let me re-iterate: Cabrera wasn’t just missing with location in his first two starts, he was like a little-leaguer on mescaline.

I know people are going to think “now’s the perfect time to buy low.” But it looks like implosion-time for Cabrera. At least wait until you see him next-time out. His control was always sub-par, and his stuff greatly exceeds his maturity. If Mazzone starts tinkering with Cabera’s none-existent mechanics, then the big guy might just blow up and walk 100 in 25 innings. Then it’s AA-time for Daniel, and your investment goes the way of the pog.