Every year a handful of guys pop up and steal the closing reins from the incumbent jackass - Jose Valverde, Coco Corderdo (although he’s been much better recently) - who engages in a total closing meltdown. And these aren’t normal meltdowns; closing bonfires usually mean ERAs in the 6, 7, or 8-range. The guy’ll be so bad that he just has to go. Then his replacement steps in, pitches great, and there’s a rush to the wire to pick him up. That’s fine, but just keep in mind your saviour’s age and experience. It didn’t take a lot of foresight to figure out Dustin Hermanson wasn’t a long term solution. But some guys missed on that one. So here are a few ‘06 closers who won’t be closing when ASB ‘07 rolls around.

Akinori Otsuka: He’s been great this year - 17/19 saves, 2.13 ERA - but he’s 34-years-old and his K:BB is 29:5 in 37 IP. No, there’s nothing wrong with those numbers, but he strikes me as the Mike Timlin of closers. Timlin was pulling an Otsuka 6 or 7 years ago with Seattle and Baltimore - he was in his early-mid 30s - before easing into his 7th inning role. That’s where Otsuka will end up once Cordero wins his closing job back next spring. Otsuka, who had a 3.59 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in San Diego last year, is the kind of guy hitters figure out after a season. Pitchers don’t move from Petco to Arlington and cut their ERAs by a run. It just doesn’t happen.

Todd Jones: 23 saves, a 5.82 ERA, and a 1.44 WHIP. Throw in a .302 opponent batting average and it’s clear Jones’s closing days are over once the Tigers have cleared his contract off the books. The 38-year-old Jones has 11 Ks in 34 IP at the All-Star Break, and Detroit has Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya at the back of their pen. Right now they can afford to humour Jones, but the guy has too much pride to pitch this way and still take the ball in the ninth. Rodney’s stumbled recently, but he’d make an excellent closer for an NL squad. He was getting it up to 99 a few days ago.

Takashi Saito: 56 K in 41 IP, 2.20 ERA and 0.88 WHIP plus a .176 OBA. That would make Saito one of the ten best relievers of ‘06, yet his stuff isn’t that sharp. But, like Todd Jones proved last year for the Marlins, the only thing that matters in the NL is whether you can locate your pitches. Once guys figure him out he’ll move back to a set-up role and let someone else take over closing duties. Saito’s 36, and that someone else is probably Jon Broxton, a big, kinda’ fat flame-thrower who has 61 Ks in 47 innings split between Las Vegas and LA. Hey, maybe Gagne comes back.

Ken Ray, Eddie Guardado, Brian Meadows: These guys are all stop-gap solutions who might not even last until the end of ‘06. Teams with good short relievers keep them in a kind of death-grip, so who knows where the next Braves closer’s coming from? But it won’t be Ken Ray. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jose Valverde shipped out of Arizona and start closing for another NL team.

Closers In Waiting: Rafael Soriano, Joel Zumaya, Jonathan Broxton, and Fernando Rodney were born to be closers. The problem is finding a deal that helps a club and robs it of its set-up man at the same time. Jesse Crain, who’s having a really rough season, is another guy to watch. He’ll be available in a trade, and he’s throwing in the mid-90s. He had 25 Ks in 79 ‘05 innings, and he has 32 in 38 IP this year. What’s amazing is that he was unhittable last year throwing 90 mph out of the pen; now that he’s back with the good heat he’s getting lit up to the tune of a 5.17 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. That doesn’t make any sense, so you’ve got to figure he’ll rebound. It’s not like his fastball was diving and darting last year; it’s just bad luck and location.