Nothing pisses me off more - apart from ads that use “Size Matters” as their slogan, thinking that’s either funny or original - than other fantasy owners whose diamonds-in-the-rough actually turn into diamonds. My $1 Clint Barmes - long since dropped - is hitting around .200 right now. His $1 Papelbon is somehow the greatest pitcher in the history of the world.

Some guys having years that make you want to go outside and chop wood:

• Papelbon: I know I already mentioned him, but the guy has a 0.41 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in 44 IP. And 26 saves! Sure, he was pretty damn good in the minors last year - 5-2, 2.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in AA with an 83:23 K:BB, and 1-2, 2.93 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 27:3 K:BB in AAA - but translating that performance to the majors is a huge leap. Strangely enough, Jon, who played college baseball, was born in 1980. So he’s young, but not that young. I guess we’re just looking at another Huston Street.
• Francisco Liriano: 19 hits in 23 IP last year, with a 33:7 K:BB and 1.10 WHIP. Opponents hit .221 off him, and everyone knew he was someone to watch coming into 2006. But his ERA is 1.83 right now, and his WHIP is 0.97. He’s the best pitcher in baseball, and that wasn’t supposed to happen so soon. The guy is 22, and anyone who’s taken a flier on Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, or Scott Kazmir knows there’s supposed to be a learning curve with young pitchers. It’s taken C.C Sabathia 6 seasons to pitch half-as-well as Liriano, and he’s still not there.
• Raul Ibanez: His career high in home runs is 24, yet he has 20 on July 9. He’s .288/20/70 in 87 games this year, and he was .280/20/89 in 162 in ‘05. What should really bother you is that he’s 34, and probably went pretty late/cheap in your draft. He’ll probably be great until the end of the year, and then slide back to earth in 2007.
• Chris Young: Living proof that any free agent pitcher who signs a contract with an AL team is an idiot. Young was good in Texas - he was actually very good, considering his age and experience - but he’s morphed into Roy Halladay over in San Diego. The 104 Ks in 109 IP are nice, and the 3.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are great, but look at his OBA: .206. Last year it was .252. I think he’s a nice looking pitcher, but .206 is out of his league. Actually, it’s not. He’s in the NL.
• Matt Holliday: He’s not even close to this good. And when I say “this good,” I mean .334/16/56. Just remember that Vinny Castilla went back to Coors in 2004 and went .275/35/131. The next year, in Washington, he hit .253/12/66 in 99 fewer ABs. He might not have went cheap in your draft, but don’t tell me you paid fair-market value for those stats.
• Justin Verlander: He came up throwing 99-100 last year in two spot-starts, but he also gave up 15 hits in 11 IP and walked 5. He’s 10-4, 3.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in ‘06, and the guy just looks like a good pitcher. Amazingly enough, here’s someone who throws 100 mph as a starting pitcher and DOESN’T go for the K every time he takes the mound. Good for him. That said, he’s another rookie who looks like he’ll vastly outstrip pre-season expectations. He’s the kind of guy you want in a keeper league, only you can’t get him because some prospect junky took him for $8 to complement his Anthony Reyes selection.

Others: I’ll just lump in a few guys who are in the midst of strong seasons, but will probably cool down and come in 25% over their pre-season projections.

• Alex Rios: He’s out with a serious staph infection, and looks like a prime candidate to cool down in the second half. Considering how far he’s come in the past 9 months, it’s possible that even a slight hiccup might result in a prolonged slump. He’s still a future Magglio, but I can see him finishing the year around .300/20/95.
• Nick Johnson, Garrett Atkins, Chris Shelton, Corey Patterson: For a while it looked like these guys were going to have monster years - in Patterson’s case, his 31 SBs have been enormous. These are good players who are slowing down and heading toward career norms. Patterson’s having the kind of year he was supposed to have in ‘05, but he’s doing it under the glare of an eternal green light. His peripherals - average, slugging, OPS - are either lower than his ‘04 season in Chicago, or are slowly moving toward agreement.
• Dan Uggla, Freddy Sanchez: Don’t kid yourself, these guys are solid ball-players. I want to predict a Jose Castillo/Valentin fall from grace, but Dan and Freddy both look like legitimate .300ish hitters. My apologies to Uggla, but Dan, you’re not Chase Utley. And Freddy, you’re not Melvin Mora. Here are a couple of solid ballplayers having Todd Walker/Mark Loretta type semi-breakthrough seasons, so keep your expectations earthbound.