Aaron Hill is the 5′11″ version of David Wright. And he plays second base. Wright, who’s the superior power hitter, has one inch and fifteen pounds on Hill. And those vitals are enough to make the difference between 20 and 30 HR/season. But Hill is close. He’s almost just as good. He’s just taking a little longer to develop.

That’s going to piss off some people. Hill’s career OBP is .340; Wright’s is .388. Hill’s career SLG % is .412; Wright’s is .532.

Clearly, Wright is the better player.

But, could Hill be better? Could he ratchet up those HR numbers, hitting 25/year?

It’s tough to say. Hill, who’s hitting second now, wants to hit singles. And his HRs this season have been squeakers; they’ve just cleared the fence. That doesn’t really equate for a guy who’s 200 pounds and has a decent fly-ball to ground-ball ratio. And he’s so far off his ‘07 HR pace that you have to wonder if he’s due for a huge two-month stretch where he belts ten or eleven bombs and gets his SLG % to the .480-.490 range. But the fact that he’s hitting so many medium fly balls doesn’t mesh with his .290-.300 average over the past couple years. If you’re going to centre the ball like that, you’re going to hit home runs. Hill benches 250; and you don’t bench 250, hit .300, and struggle to hit 20 balls 325-400 feet from home plate over a 600-AB season.

At the very least Hill will be an above-average doubles hitter. Hitting in the three hole, he could drive in 85-90 runs/season. Because he’s only 26, there’s no question that there’s a career 25-30 HR season on the near horizon. In the past that’d be a 35 HR season. But luck like that’s dried up, dripped out; the cream’s hardened. Look for 25 round-trippers probably next year, but possibly ‘10. And given that the Jays are running, Hill’s a good bet for 15 stolen bases.

The best 2B in the AL? It’s coming. I’m telling you, it’s coming.