Trevor Hoffman picked up another save last night. Number 532. The man’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer; of that there’s no doubt. But let’s focus on the present. You’ve got Hoffman closing games, you’ve got Heath Bell setting up, and you’ve got the Padres a dime under .500. That’d be fine if it were 1996, but with a forty-year-old Hoffman nearing the lip of the horizon, something’s going to change.

So far in 2008 Trevor’s WHIP is 1.34. That’s a borderline number for most relievers, but it’s not awful. It is, however, a big jump from his 1.05 career line. No one expects him to be that good anymore, but the question becomes Just how much worse can it get before these nail-biting saves turn into losses. I’d say those two rooms are separated by a grease-stained sheet of newsprint. I can see you doing hamstring stretches on the other side.

Trevor’s notched fifteen strikeouts in twelve ‘08 innings; he’s given up five walks, two home runs, and lost two games. His OBA is .245, and he’s blown one save in his last eight chances.

I say trade him. But you can’t. He’s Trevor Hoffman, he’ll go where he wants to go–or not. With Gagne clean and sober, Isringhausen arthritic, Todd Jones about as intimidating as Jim Acker, the Rockies back to Fuentes, and the Indians surviving on the alphabet soup of a Kobayashi/Betancourt split, there are plenty of contending teams that could use a proven closer. But that implies that they’d actually like to win games. Which is another reason why Hoffman’s probably staying put in San Diego. There’s a ton of perceived risk here. (Although all Trevor would have to do is say the word, and tomorrow he’d be pitching for another team, an A-ball prospect going the other way.)

Bell’s K pace is down, but that shouldn’t bother you. They were saying, earlier in the year, that his velocity was down. He was throwing in the mid-high nineties last week, so it must’ve been a question of reps. He still throws a ninety-six mph two-seam fastball, and still has a decent slider. If his flyball rate’s up, who cares? He plays in Petco, his K/9 will always be around nine, and his OBA is .205. With a 2.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, Bell’s shown he could probably finish games. But he’s vultured two chances over the past two seasons. Hoffman gets every shot, and he’s just too revered to back down.

More questions: How long do you keep going to a closer whose fastball tops out at eighty-five? How long do you keep going with your forty-one-year-old closer when you’re twenty games under .500 and your future stopper needs experience? Bell has two career saves. Two! You’ve got to figure they want this guy at least tasting the ninth inning. All the Padres are doing right now is delaying the inevitable.

Hoffman’s contract is up after this season. It won’t–it can’t be renewed. So, in many ways, this is Trevor’s victory lap around Major League Baseball. You don’t want to humiliate him by making him the seventh-inning guy on a last-place team. But you realize you’ve got absolutely nothing to gain by letting him play.

If the Bruins could trade Ray Bourque, the Padres can trade Trevor Hoffman.

Since he’s putting the tying run on almost every single outing, it’s only a matter of time (maybe just a few weeks) before Bell takes over. But you hope it doesn’t have to get that ugly before the right move’s made.