To paraphrase Yogi Berra, it’s very difficult to make predictions–especially about the future. Alex Rios is proving the value of Berra’s sage incoherence. With 105 games left in the baseball season, Rios has grounded into ten double plays. That doesn’t seem like a lot–ten is barely a double-digit number–but consider this: In 711 ‘07 plate appearances, Rios grounded into nine twin killings; in 498 ‘06 at bats, six.

Now, through 256 plate appearances, Rios has been out on the back end ten times. (He’s tied for third in the league in that category. David Ortiz has ten; D. Lee, Loney, and Jose Castillo have eleven; Vlad has twelve.) It’s part of a trend that’s seen his power drop to Freel-like levels. Even more scary–for fantasy players–is Rios’s ground ball vs. fly ball ratio. Last year it finished at 197:227, respectively. This year it’s 87:59. That’s an incredible thirteen percent drop in fly ball frequency.

After Rios was called up in 2004, fans flipped out over his lack of power. Rios is 6′5″, 225, but he plays a very soft game. That year [2004] Alex had one home run in 426 at bats. He posted a SLG % of .383–an absurdly low number for a guy whose OBP was .338. His GB:FB ratio that year: 191:79.

So he’s reverted. And talk about a reversion. This time next year he could be wearing a placenta. That GB:FB ratio is almost identical (1.47 vs. 1.46) to his ‘05 season. That year Alex went .262/10/59, numbers that Jays’s fans never thought they’d see again. His ‘08 pace: .262/9/69.

That’s right. His ‘08 batting average and ‘08 HR total are on pace to match identically his ‘05 numbers.

It’s an incredible return to mediocrity that really can’t be explained. You’ve got to assume that Alex was playing clean; he’s never looked particularly big. And he’s only twenty-seven, so this is probably just an aberration. But with his SLG % down to .369–that’s lower than his debut-season number–fans and owners are going crazy.

Alex crouches low in his stance; his knees are bent at about a 45-degree angle. It looks like it’s very easy for him to get out on that front foot. That’s usually a good thing, but he’s lost the ability to hit the ball in the air. And, oddly enough, his K total has soared. He’s on pace to strike out 150 times this season; last year he just edged over 100 (103). How often do you see a slap hitter K 150 times? Juan Pierre has struck out nine times in 2008; Julio Lugo has thirty Ks. Imagine how many more GIDPs Rios would have if he could make more consistent contact.

Alex ought to be shifted a little more on his back leg. But that’s something for Rios and the Jays’s hitting coach to figure out. This isn’t just a slump.

Link
Alex Rios’s Expanded Stats