Greg Smith’s cooled down a little after a hot start, but he’s still someone to look at as a source of long-term value. As a lefty pitching in Oakland’s massive meadow, he’s got the benefit of history on his side. Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, and Dana Eveland: all lefties with average stuff who’ve had their beginnings in Oakland. Other than one season with Toronto, Ted Lilly pitched his best ball for the Athletics. It’s not a coincidence, it’s not a fluke. Oakland’s where LHP go to post sub-4.30 ERA’s.

Smith, born on December 23, 1983, is kind of a cross between Lilly and Mulder. The former 6th-round (171st overall in 2005) draft pick throws a cut fastball at 88-90 mph, a change, and a slider. A good rule of thumb is to always take a second look at left-handed starters who throw changeups. It’s an out pitch to righties, and lefties can’t hit it. The change, in my opinion, is the best pitch in baseball.

Smith’s velocity might scare you. I know a lot of owners who’d be reticent to draft a starter with a sub-90 fastball. Five-by-five leagues value strikeouts, and soft-tossing lefties are almost always roster fillers and late-round picks.

But here’s where Smith might fool you. With a K/9 IP of 6.75, he’s actually showing decent strikeout potential. His minor league number of 7.76 punchouts per game is just a single notch below another change-thrower, Dan Haren, who put up 8.75 Ks/9 IP on his way through the minors. And Smith’s closed the gap in the majors; his 6.75 K/9 IP is right at Haren’s 7.04. And since Smith’s only twenty-four, there’s always the chance for improvement.

Other Smith minor league totals that might interest you: Career 3.27 ERA; career 1.19 WHIP; career 2.64 BB/9 IP (a great number, and one he’s translated to the majors); career 0.65 HR/9 IP; 358 career IP over the past five years (including NCAA totals).

In terms of expanded stats, Smith’s been flying well below fantasy buzz. Here’s a guy with a .231 OBA, a .312 OBP-allowed, and averaging six innings per start in his rookie season–and he’s owned in 30% of ESPN leagues.

But keeper owners should take another look at Smith. Though he’s destined to wear down over the next 100 IP of this–his rookie–season, his cut fastball is going to last into ‘09. And though he’s not exactly a young Tom Glavine, he’s at least poised to be a middle-aged one. The cut fastball is great, the change is a plus pitch, and the kid seems to know what he’s doing on the mound. The only caveat is that Oakland, which has little-to-no offense, could/will hurt his win totals. But seeing how he’s likely to be a $5-10 option in many drafts, I don’t see how you can pass on this guy.

Mark Mulder’s rookie totals: 154 IP, 191 hits, 5.44 ERA, 88:69 K:BB
Mark Mulder’s sophomore totals: 229 IP, 214 hits, 3.45 ERA, 153:51 K:BB

Now whom does that remind you of?