Watching Matt Cain pitch last week against the Mets, I couldn’t help but wonder whether he’s destined to be the next Jeremy Bonderman: a guy with great potential who’s always a start away from being a $20 pitcher; but a guy who, until he’s that $20 pitcher, will always be overhyped and overpriced. (And, if you want to take the comparison a step further, could even start providing a dimishing return.) Cain was throwing a change, a fastball, a curve, and a slider. But, as is usually the story with Matt, he couldn’t command anything. His fastball was at 92-93, and his pitches were breaking over the plate. It was one of those Cain outings where you wonder what the hell’s going on with this guy. In his fourth season in the majors, Cain is toying with the highest BB/9 IP of his career.

Here’s his four-year walk trend:
‘05: 3.69
‘06: 4.11
‘07: 3.56
‘08: 4.26

Four-and-a-half walks per game is an ugly number. But more concerning is the fact that his command doesn’t seem to be improving. At 16.7, he’s sandwiched between Ryan Franklin and Ron Mahay in terms of number of pitches thrown per inning. Other starters near 16.7: Brett Myers (16.7), Dustin McGowan (16.8), Rich Harden (16.9), Eric Bedard (16.8), and Jon Lester (16.8).

Toss out Harden–who’s a pure strikeout pitcher–and you’ve got the four most inconsistent, biggest risk-reward starting pitchers in baseball. These are guys who take the hill every five days wondering what’s going to happen, where the ball’s going to go, what kind of stuff they have. Just for its shock value, Daniel Cabrera’s #P/IP was 17.5 last year; Cain’s was 16.8.

Looking at the trends in Matt’s peripheral numbers, you’d be hard-pressed to find a number that’s improving. Well, that’s a lie–You wouldn’t find a number that’s improving. Everything you want to be high is sinking; everything you want to be low is rising. His K:BB ratio is down from 2.06 in ‘07 to 1.74 in ‘08. His OBP against is up to .329 from .312. His SLG against is up to .431 from .366. His AVG against is up to .242 from .235. His K/9 is up from ‘07 but down .70 from ‘06. Those numbers are still pretty good, but take a look at his results: 4.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, two wins. Yes, the Giants’s bullpen is about as good as antique gum. But Matt’s made thirteen starts this year, and he’s thrown seventy-nine innings. Six innings/start? Come on. You can’t do that.

Through eighty-three career starts Cain’s tossed three complete games; in forty career starts Gavin Floyd has two complete games. Who’s the better pitcher?

And, worst of all, his ground ball-fly ball ratio has dropped off from his ‘07 turnaround (.93 in ‘07, .66 in ‘08). Cain is a fly-ball pitcher, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher with a two-seam fastball. Other pitchers with a similar GB:FB ratio: Rich Hill (0.69), Ted Lilly (0.64), Micah Owings (0.67). We’re talking about guys who’re expected to surrender thirty home runs every year. That’s a disaster for Cain. You think the Giants can win ten games for Cain if he’s giving up a bomb per start? I guess that depends whether you believe in Bengie Molina as a legitimate cleanup hitter.

That the Giants will be incredibly bad–bad as a Seltzer/Friedberg movie–for the next ten years is almost a given. In owning Cain, you’re hoping for twelve wins, a great WHIP, good K totals, and a nice ERA. He’ll probably be able to give that to you, but you’ve got to start wondering what strides he’s making as a pitcher. Is his fastball getting faster? No. He and McGowan have an idiotic, inexplicable tendency not to be able to repeat velocity from start-to-start. Is his command improving? Not really. Is his team improving? No! in thunder.

So, what is Cain? A streak pitcher on a bad team. Period. He’s throwing fewer pitches per plate appearance, but he’s giving up more hits. He’s throwing fewer pitches per start, but his ERA is up more than a run.

In ‘07 Cain gave up fourteen HRs; in ‘08, twelve. That’s thirty in a 200-inning season. He’s treading water. And, for a young pitcher, that’s dangerous. For a young pitcher on a team as bad as the Giants–that’s enough reason not to own him.