A couple of months ago, when things were really going wrong for Ryan Garko, I started wondering, “Is this guy the next Brian Daubach?” Ryan wasn’t doing anything; his average had dropped to .240, and his power numbers had collapsed from his 21-HR 2007. Then I thought, “Maybe this Daubach comparison’s wrong; maybe he’s the next Eric Hinske.”

But since that ridiculous mid-season slump, and since that July-August benching, Garko’s been hitting. His power numbers are still weak (he’s .102 points below his rookie SLG %), but his RBI and AVG stats are starting to come around. He’s driven in 11 over his past 10 games, and, over that span, he’s raised his average .014 points to .253.

The problem with Garko is that he’s really not a power hitter. He’s got a line drive swing, and he’s at his best when he’s hitting singles to CF. But he gets a lot of loft on his swing when he can load up on a pitch, and the only concern that I have is that his pitch recognition hasn’t improved much over the past few seasons. He hits a lot of fly balls to mid-left field, and he should have more to show for his 1:1 ground ball:fly ball ratio than 7 home runs. Really, this is a guy who’s having a bad year hitting RHP (.236 vs. righties; .307 vs. lefties). I think that’s just a one-year blip.

At 6-2, 225, Garko’s an annual bet for 20 HR. And he should be good for 85-95 RBI/season. But he’s been such an inconsistent hitter over the past couple years that he won’t truly be worth owning till he hits that breakout season. I think that year’s coming in 2009. If you can pick him up cheap on a long-term contract, then make your move now. His K:BB is shrinking, and he’s a big underperform on his OPS totals. So he’s not hitting for power, but he’s striking out less and walking more than his MLB trends would’ve indicated. In 185, 2006, at-bats Garko hit 7 home runs; in 380, 2008, at-bats, Ryan’s hit 9 home runs. If the numbers don’t make sense, they’re bound to change. Here’s a perfect opportunity to buy a mid-tier option at a fraction of his price-potential number.

The biggest problem is predicting what Eric Wedge will do once Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez are back and healthy. Kelly Shoppach has proven that he’s a good option as a starter, and Hafner and Martinez aren’t going to the bench. So Garko could platoon at 1B/DH, with Martinez stealing playing time to make room for a couple-few Shoppach starts/week behind the plate. If that happens, Garko’s only worth a couple bucks as an AL-only starter. But if Ryan can stay hot over the next month, and if Hafner’s really the declining return that he seems to be, then make the smart play and look at Garko going into 2009.